Sugar Reduction Campaign Taking Hold Globally

Summary

Health based campaigns to reduce ‘hidden’ sugars in food and drink products are gaining ground across the globe. This is beginning to impact on global sugar consumption, global consumption is projected to fall over 700,000 tonnes in the coming year despite the current low prices. The trend towards reduced sugar use in food and drink products is being aided by the development of alternative sweeteners which are better suited to use in processed food and drinks. In this context individual ACP sugar exporters will need to develop a better understanding of which components of the market their exports serve and if necessary, develop market repositioning initiatives aimed at reducing their vulnerability to the current health campaigns which are targeting high sugar content food and drink products. Read more “Sugar Reduction Campaign Taking Hold Globally”

Lifting of EU Ban May Provide Little Relief for Ghanaian Vegetable Exporters

Summary

While the EU Delegation in Ghana has heralded the scheduled lifting of the EU ban on imports of specified vegetable from Ghana on 1st January 2018, the trade benefits of this measure could be undermined by the stricter SPS control requirements on False Coddling Moth scheduled to be introduced by the EU from 1st January 2018. This could potentially place a significant additional administrative burden on the competent authority to verify compliance with EU requirements, with any failure to satisfy stricter EU requirements leading to market closure. This is an issue not only for Ghana but 20 other ACP countries engaged in exporting capsicum and pimento to the EU.  How the situation evolves in regard to ACP exports of capsicum and pimento in 2018 will provide a concrete example of the kind of impact which stricter EU Plant Health Regulation requirements are likely to have on a range of ACP fresh plant exports to the EU. Read more “Lifting of EU Ban May Provide Little Relief for Ghanaian Vegetable Exporters”

Pre-emptive export restrictions introduced on South African citrus exports to EU

Summary

The Citrus Growers Association has once again introduced voluntary restrictions on citrus exports to the EU in order to avert any threat of formal EU import restrictions. While the South African citrus industry is looking forward to new export opportunities as a result of the Brexit process, these opportunities may well be deferred if a two year transition period is agreed. During this period the UK would need to remain subject to EU rules and regulation. The prospect of such a two year transition period however remains clouded by uncertainty, given the contrasting views of the UK government and EU negotiators on the time it will take to agree a long term EU27-UK trade framework. Read more “Pre-emptive export restrictions introduced on South African citrus exports to EU”

New EU Plant Health Regulation Could Carry Important Implications for Smaller Scale ACP Exporters

Summary

The EU’s new Plant Health Regulation adopts a far more comprehensive and proactive precautionary approach than at present. It will lead to far stricter SPS controls on ‘priority pests’ in ‘high risk commodities’. For these products from 13 December 2019 trade will be prohibited without a favourable pest risk assessment.  In this context the regulation makes provision for temporary EU restrictions and import bans where the pest risk is unknown.

Given the timetable for secondary legislation, in calendar year 2019 ACP competent authorities in countries exporting high risk commodities could face substantial additional demands on their human and financial resources in terms of pest mapping and  monitoring and operationalisation of effective pest control programmes. Smaller scale ACP exporters of high risk commodities could be particularly vulnerable, given the whole process will also impose substantial additional burdens on the EU SPS inspection service and these smaller exporting  countries may not be a priority for pest risk assessment, even if requests for assessments are submitted in a timely manner by the national competent authority . Read more “New EU Plant Health Regulation Could Carry Important Implications for Smaller Scale ACP Exporters”

Fears over impact EU SMP stocks on global dairy prices being realized

Summary

There is growing international concern over the impact of accumulated EU skimmed milk powder (SMP) intervention stocks on global milk powder prices. Fears over future EU stock disposal plans, are weighing down global SMP prices. Given the extent to which SMP import prices act as a benchmark for local fresh milk prices, this is an issue of particular concern in ACP countries seeking to develop local milk-to-dairy supply chains. To avert the disruption of efforts in ACP countries to develop local milk-to-dairy supply chains the EU needs to tolerate the continued use of controls on all forms of milk powder imports in those countries where local milk supply development programmes are underway. Read more “Fears over impact EU SMP stocks on global dairy prices being realized”

Dutch onion exports hit further record highs with West African markets playing a  critical role

Summary

Dutch onion exports continue to grow with ACP markets, particularly in West Africa being major destination markets. Since 2010 the importance of ACP markets to extra-EU Dutch onion exports has increased from 57.6% to 62.5%, with ACP market increasing in importance whenever difficulties are faced on other third country markets. This suggest any disruption of Dutch-UK onion exports arising from a hard-Brexit could rebound in terms of increased Dutch onion exports to ACP markets.  This in turn could adversely impact on local efforts across the ACP to expand local production of onions for national and regional markets Read more “Dutch onion exports hit further record highs with West African markets playing a  critical role”

USDA projects lower EU sugar price post production quota abolition

Summary

While USDA maintains EU sugar prices will need to fall if EU projections for growth in sugar exports in the post-quota period are to be met, this neglects the long experience EU sugar companies have of operating within a dual price system. It is possible substantial price premiums could be maintained on the EU sugar market, with this raising the issue of what regulatory initiatives are required to ensure traditional ACP suppliers share in any EU sugar market prices premiums. This would appear to require an extension of the EC’s current regulatory initiative on UTPs to ACP-EU sugar supply chains. This could potentially include regulatory requirements mirroring those which govern relations between domestic EU sugar beet growers and EU sugar beet millers. Read more “USDA projects lower EU sugar price post production quota abolition”

Global Market Context Far From Favourable in the Context of the End of EU Sugar Production Quotas

Summary

Projected global sugar price trends are unlikely to support EU sugar prices in the post quota abolition period. Caribbean and pacific ACP sugar exporters will be potentially the most vulnerable to EU price declines over the 2017/18 season. This situation could then be compounded by the sugar market effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, currently scheduled for 30th March 2019.  These effects however may be deferred following Prime Minister May’s acceptance that during the implementation period (transitional period) UK/EU27 trade would need to take place within ‘the existing structure of EU rules and regulations’.

Nevertheless there remain profound policy uncertainties around UK sugar market developments which make any projections of likely developments hazardous. Against this background over the coming years ACP sugar exporters will need to closely monitor developments in the Brexit negotiations and the evolution of UK’s autonomous trade policies as they impact on the sugar sector, in order to identify and exploit any market opportunities which might emerge. Read more “Global Market Context Far From Favourable in the Context of the End of EU Sugar Production Quotas”

Brexit and Trade Displacement: Areas of Concern for ACP Countries

Summary

An additional area of impact of Brexit which has to date been neglected when considering the consequences for ACP countries arising from the trade displacement. This would arise from two inter-related development: firstly the possible introduction of MFN tariffs on mutual EU27/UK trade in agro-food products; secondly the impact of new UK trade deals on the market position of EU27 suppliers on the UK market. Both of these developments could see export drives targeting ACP markets in the most seriously affected products, from sugar and dairy products to beef and poultry meat. Read more “Brexit and Trade Displacement: Areas of Concern for ACP Countries”

Report Paints Grim Picture for Prospects for Integrated Dairy Sector Development in Nigeria

Summary

The PwC report paints a pessimistic picture of the future prospects for the development of Nigerian milk production, given the serious constraints on the development of commercial milk production. There is a need to recognise that if multinational dairy companies are to effectively expand local milk sourcing this will need to be part of a sector wide approach involving all dairy industry players. If not all players are on board the differential use of milk powders in the production of dairy products will create competitive pressures which individual corporate efforts to expand local milk sourcing. This may well require the targeted use of trade policy tools to ensure discipline in support of any sector wide approach. However this could fall foul of EPA provisions prohibiting the use of such tools, should Nigeria sign on to the west Africa-EU EPA. Read more “Report Paints Grim Picture for Prospects for Integrated Dairy Sector Development in Nigeria”