Summary
Investments in Polish poultry meat production continue, consolidating Poland’s position as the EU’s leading poultry producer (23% of the total). This is fuelling the growth in extra-EU poultry meat exports, with the rapid growth in Polish exports to sub-Saharan Africa in part being masked by the opening up of new export opportunities in neighbouring Ukraine. Given the lower production costs in Poland, this export growth is set to continue, with the prospect of a ‘hard’ Brexit likely to fuel the Polish quest for new markets beyond the EU’s borders.
In the period from May to June 2018 three new Polish poultry plant investments were announced by the poultry and feed company Wipsasz (1), the general food company Plozywnosc.sp z.o.o. (2) and the poultry meat producer and processor Drobimex (3). Poland has rapidly become the EU’s leading poultry meat producer, accounting for 23% of the EU28’s poultry meat production in 2017 (followed by the UK, France, Spain, Germany and Italy accounting for 18%,16%,15%, 15% and 13% respectively) (4). According to USDA data chicken meat production in Poland having tripled since 2008 (5).
While poultry meat consumption in Poland is growing strongly the announcements of further investments in production expansion need to be seen against the background of expanding Polish poultry meat exports. According to USDA analysis in 2016 over 30% of Polish poultry meat was exported. While most of this went to neighbouring EU markets, fully 28% was being exported beyond the EU’s borders, with the importance of non-EU market continuing to grow (3).
In 2017 ‘Poland’s poultry meat industry …exported a total of 1.4 million tonnes in carcass weight equivalent’, an increase of 10% over 2016 (2). The main fellow EU member state markets include Germany and the UK (2), while the most important non EU markets are the Ukraine, Hong Kong, the Middle East (2) and sub-Saharan African markets (1).
Since 2012 Polish extra-EU poultry meat exports have more than tripled, with a more than 60% increase between 2015 and 2017. By 2017 Poland accounted for 19.3% (almost 1 in 5 of every tonnes of extra-EU EU poultry meat exports), up from 7.1% of total extra EU poultry meat exports in 2012 (1 in every 14 tonnes of extra-EU poultry meat exports) (6).
Poland’s Evolving Share of Extra-EU Poultry Meat Exports
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| EU | 1,275,365 | 1,268,967 | 1,335,732 | 1,350,002 | 1,506,771 | 1,496,561 |
| Poland | 91,143 | 110,314 | 144,937 | 179,645 | 246,142 | 288,755 |
| % share Poland | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 19.3% |
Source: EC Market Access Data Base
In 2017 Poland exported poultry meat to 21 African countries up from 16 in 2012. In 2017 some 83,126 tonnes of Polish extra-EU poultry meat exports went to African markets (almost 29%) up from 27,180 tonnes in 2012 (when these exports accounted for almost 30% of Polish extra-EU poultry meat exports) (6). Exports to the main target markets grew by an impressive 26.9% in 2017 compared to 2016, despite outbreaks of Avian Influenza in Poland, which led to the closure of some export market (notably South Africa). The rate of growth to the main target markets in 2017 was by far the fastest rate of expansion since the initial surge in Polish poultry exports to sub-Saharan Africa 2013-14.
From 2014 the importance of sub-Saharan African markets to Polish extra-EU poultry meat exports declined following the conclusion of new EU trading arrangements with Ukraine. This saw Polish poultry meat exports to Ukraine increase from 12,545 tonnes in 2013 to 91,813 tonnes in 2017. However had this expansion in Polish poultry meat exports to Ukraine not occurred, then in 2017 sub-Saharan African markets would have been accounting for around 39% of extra-EU Polish poultry meat exports.
Polish Extra-EU Poultry Exports 2012-2017 and Main African markets (above 500 tonnes)
| % 2012 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | % 2017 | |
| Total | 91,143 | 110,314 | 144,937 | 179,645 | 246,142 | 288,755 | ||
| – Africa | ||||||||
| Benin | 7.9% | 7,162 | 20,829 | 30,708 | 23,479 | 15,601 | 15,291 | 5.3% |
| Ghana | 0.8% | 768 | 1,277 | 1,615 | 2,848 | 9,349 | 15,036 | 5.2% |
| Liberia | 1.4% | 1,251 | 3,631 | 6,058 | 8,804 | 10,437 | 14,937 | 5.2% |
| Congo | 4.1% | 3,750 | 7,742 | 9,401 | 14,513 | 15,582 | 10,265 | 3.6% |
| Gabon | 0.6% | 52 | 1,968 | 2,797 | 5,863 | 6,691 | 7,730 | 2.7% |
| DRC | 0.7% | 658 | 815 | 442 | 1,636 | 4,822 | 7,546 | 2.6% |
| Ivory Coast | 0 | 0 | 101 | 48 | 493 | 1,596 | 2,675 | 0.9% |
| Togo | 1.7% | 1,516 | 2,065 | 3,521 | 2,498 | 3,291 | 2,657 | 0.9% |
| Comores | 0.01% | 13 | 70 | 104 | 236 | 789 | 2,061 | 0.7% |
| Sierra Leone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 262 | 544 | 1,418 | 0.5% |
| Equ Guinea | 0.3% | 263 | 156 | 242 | 633 | 401 | 1,239 | 0.4% |
| Mozambique | 0.1% | 96 | 70 | 430 | 328 | 313 | 685 | 0.2% |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 48 | 84 | 38 | 312 | 554 | 0.2% |
| South Africa | 0 | 0 | 20 | 26 | 0 | 4,944 | 0 | |
| Sub-Total | 15,529 | 38,492 | 55,529 | 61,631 | 64,672 | 82,094 | ||
| % share total | 17.0% | 34.9% | 38.3% | 34.3% | 26.3% | 28.4% |
Source: EC Market Access Data Base
| Comment and Analysis
The rise of Polish poultry meat production is based on lower wage, feed and other production costs. The shift in EU production to new EU member states with lower production costs is improving the average price competitiveness of EU poultry meat exports. However health concerns have been raised in regard to poultry production processes in Poland. Reports carried by euractiv in 2017 highlighted how in 2016 the presence of Salmonella bacteria in poultry feed in Polish supply chains ‘led to an estimated 500 cases of salmonella in humans, at least two of which were fatal’. This was symptomatic of a rise in Salmonella infections in the Polish poultry sector (17 in 2015, 27 in 2016 and 29 in the first seven months of 2017). According to the Polish National Institute of Public Health 2017 saw the highest level of Salmonella contamination, since 2007 (7). Against this background there will no doubt be periodic set-backs to the growth in Polish poultry meat exports linked to food safety and SPS concerns. Nevertheless Polish extra-EU poultry meat export growth to sub-Saharan Africa looks set to continue, with sub-Saharan African markets generally being less sensitive to health alerts. The withdrawal of the UK, the EU’s second largest poultry producer, will of course serve to further enhance the significance of the Polish poultry sector within an EU of 27 member states. Polish exports to Africa are heavily concentrated on West African markets (18% of total extra-EU exports), with a secondary focus on Central African markets (9.5%). However in recent years overall Polish poultry meat exports to West Africa have been impacted by the stricter Nigerian controls on poultry meat smuggling from Benin. Between 2014 and 2017 Polish poultry meat exports to Benin halved. Nevertheless the decline in exports to Benin has been more than compensated for by the 9-fold increase in exports to Ghana, a 250% increase in exports to Liberia, a major expansion of exports to Sierra Leone (but from a low base) and the opening up of the Ivorian market. Polish efforts to penetrate the Southern African market were initially successful, with in 2016 South Africa emerging as the 6th most important African destination for Polish poultry meat exports. However the introduction by the South African authorities of SPS based import restrictions at the end of 2016 saw this market disappear. Polish exporters however are adaptable, with the closure of the South African market throughout 2017 having no impact on the continued growth in poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa, which grew 4.8% overall in 2017 compared to 2016. Given the importance of the UK market to intra-EU Polish poultry meat exports, any ‘hard’ Brexit which disrupted this current export trade to the UK could see a rapid expansion of Polish efforts to find alternative markets in Africa for any displaced poultry meat export products. |
Sources:
1. Globalmeatnews.com, ‘Polish poultry meat processor to build new facility ‘, 1 May 2018
https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2018/05/01/Wipasz-invest-in-new-meat-production-facility
2.Globalmeatnews.com, ‘Polish company to invest €35m in poultry meat processing plant’, 7 June 2018
https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2018/06/07/Polzywnosc-invests-in-poultry-meat-processing-plant
3. Gloablmeatnews.com, ‘Polish meat business increases output capacity’, 19 May 2018
https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2018/05/19/Drobimex-expands-capacity
4. EC, ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets’, 21 June 2018
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/cdd4ea97-73c6-4dce-9b01-ec4fdf4027f9/24.08.2017-Poultry.pptfinal.pdf
5. USDA, ‘2017 Annual Poultry and Poultry Products Report’, 7 December 2017
https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/2017%20Annual%20Poultry%20and%20Poultry%20Products%20Report_Warsaw_Poland_12-7-2017.pdf
(6) EC, Market Access Data Base
http://madb.europa.eu/madb/statistical_form.htm
(7) euractiv, ‘Salmonella’s Polish resurgence raises concerns’, 2 August 2017
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/salmonellas-polish-resurgence-raises-concerns/