Summary
Relying on the UK becoming an associated member of existing EPA arrangements would appear unwise, since extended delays in formulating a new post BREXIT UK-EU27 trade framework would make this option very difficult. While a range of options are being advanced for how the interests of developing countries can be accommodated in the BREXIT process, this will require active political engagement by ACP governments with UK opinion leaders and policy makers if arrangements favourable to the interests of ACP countries are to be set in place.
According to press reports, the now former British Ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, has warned the British Cabinet that ‘a trade deal between the UK and the European Union following Brexit could take at least 10 years to finalise’. He reportedly, informed Cabinet that EU member governments did not see a trade deal with the UK being concluded until ‘the early or mid-2020s’. He also indicated that ‘even if a consensus on the trade deal is reached, it might get stuck in the ratification process’, since for the agreement to take effect, all EU27 member states will be required to ‘ratify the UK-EU trade deal in their own parliaments’. (1)
The UK Prime Minister’s office however noted the view on the length of time it might take to negotiate an agreement was not that of the British Ambassador to the EU but rather a view ‘European leaders had expressed’. (1)
The UK Minister responsible for the BREXIT process, David Davis has told the UK Parliament ‘negotiation plans’ would not be finalized until February 2017, since a ‘lot of research’ was required before they could be finalized. (1)
Meanwhile a presentation to the Conservative Party conference on BREXIT and developing countries has called for the adoption of a number of steps to ensure BREXIT works for developing countries, namely:
- the immediate unilateral extension of duty free-quota free access to all LDCs, with improved rules of origin, streamlined standards, services preferences and a commitment to waiving the use of anti-dumping procedures against LDCs;
- improving preferences for non-LDCs through transitional arrangements based on existing GSP/FTA arrangements such as those with ACP countries;
- better but more controlled access for migrants to the UK market;
- the conduct of impact assessments to evaluate the impact of UK policy changes on developing countries prior to the adoption of new trade policy frameworks;
- review existing agricultural subsidy schemes which are harmful to free competition;
- increase aid for trade. (2)
Source:
ibtimes.co.uk, ‘EU-UK trade deal finalisation could take at least 10 years, warns British diplomat’ 15 December 2016 http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-uk-trade-deal-finalisation-could-take-least-10-years-warns-british-diplomat-1596613
ODI, ‘ Five win-win ways to ensure the UK’s new trade policy works for developing countries’, 4 October 2016
https://www.odi.org/comment/10444-five-win-win-ways-ensure-uk-s-new-trade-policy-works-developing-countries
| Comment and Analysis The warning that a trade deal between the EU and UK could take up to 10 years needs to be taken on board by those ACP governments who believe the UK could simply accede as a third party to existing ACP-EU trade arrangements. In the absence of any special interim arrangements, any delays in finalizing the post BREXIT trade relationship between the UK and the EU27 would immediately result in MFN duties being applied on exports between the parties. This would greatly complicate any efforts to have the UK accede as a third party to the existing EPAs.Against this background it would appear essential that ACP governments pro-actively engage with political opinion leaders and policy makers in the UK on how existing arrangements for access to the UK market can be retained for all ACP countries from day 1 of the UK’s departure from the EU, regardless of the state of UK-EU27 relations. If such guarantees from the UK government can be secured, then a ‘hard BREXIT’ could give rise to some positive benefits for ACP agro-food sector exporters as duty free access for ACP exports is retained while imports from EU27 countries face MFN duties on the UK market. |
| Key words: BREXIT Area for Posting: BREXIT, EPA General, SADC EPA, West African EPA, central African EPA EAC EPA, ESA EPA, Caribbean EPA, Pacific EPA |