Summary
The UK meat inspection service depends heavily on veterinarians trained outside the UK. Over 90% of meat sector vets are EU nationals. A ‘no deal’ Brexit could give rise to serious staff shortages in the UK meat inspection service. This could compromise current UK beef and poultry meat exports to EU27 markets. This will be compounded by the application of standard EU 3rd country pre-import certification requirements. This is likely to displace UK meat from EU markets and give rise to export surges to targeted ACP markets. In some ACP countries this could disrupt the functioning of local meat markets and will require appropriate safeguard actions. The shortage of trained vets across the meat sector (including SPS border inspection services) could also adversely impact imports of beef from ACP countries (Namibia and Botswana). This would suggest a need to either intensify current efforts to diversify away from the UK market in their beef trade with the EU or intensify efforts to ‘Brexit-proof’ beef export supply chains from shortages of trained vets and meat inspectors within the UK border protection services.
A new report by the UK Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has warned of a potential crisis in UK meat inspection services under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit (1). Currently over 90% of official veterinarians employed in the UK meat sector are EU27 nationals (2), since ‘working in slaughterhouses was not generally considered attractive to UK citizens qualified as veterinarians’ (1).
According to the British Veterinary Association (BVA) ‘without non-UK EU vets, there may not be enough appropriately qualified vets to meet workforce needs which would have a significant effect on animal health and welfare, public health and trade’ (2). A ‘no deal’ Brexit could thus pose serious challenges for the maintenance of the UK meat sector inspection services. Already according to a survey conducted by the British Veterinary Association BVA) ‘the percentage of advertised vacancies receiving no applications has increased from 1% in 2015 to 5% in 2018’. In addition the % of advertised vacancies ‘receiving 3 or fewer applicants has increased from 31% in 2015 to 44% in 2018’ (1).
The chair of the MAC highlighted how the current skills shortages were occurring ‘under the current immigration system which incorporates EU free movement’. He pointed out how ‘should Brexit happen and free movement end the UK in general and the veterinary, meat processing and agricultural sectors, in particular, will suddenly find themselves in even more perilous positions than at present’. Against this background the MAC report called for a relaxation of migration rules for veterinary staff under any post-Brexit system (1).
In terms of the trade effects, the consequence of the staffing crisis for vets in the meat sector needs to be seen in the context of the important role veterinarians play in certifying animals for international trade (2).
UK livestock associations have suggested the staffing crisis in abattoirs reaches ‘beyond vets to all those who worked in the abattoir sector’. The National Sheep Association has highlighted how ‘there are many jobs in UK agriculture, with tough working hours and conditions’ which the UK work-force is failing to fulfil, with this having nothing to do with ‘migrant labour undercutting wage rates’ (1).
In June 2019 the NFU publicly expressed its frustration with the ‘Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) for excluding agriculture from its list of jobs in short supply once the UK leaves the EU’. NFU President Minette Batters said she was ‘staggered that farming has been ‘ignored’, and that the MAC has failed to recognise the needs of the industry’ (3).
The human resource constraints will affect both the ability of UK livestock enterprises to export to EU27 markets (since there are likely to be insufficient staff to undertake inspections in line with EU 3rd country requirements) as well as the operation of SPS import inspection services. This needs to be seen in a context where consignment arriving in the UK need to be checked by official veterinarians working at designated border inspection post (BIP) who ‘then check animal or animal product identity and documentation’ (4).
In this latter regard in April 2019 the UK government issued an updated information note for imports of livestock products into the UK in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. This highlighted the following issues:
- the UK will continue to recognise establishments ‘that are approved to export into the EU’ (4);
- ‘for 6 months after the UK leaves the EU’ ‘health certificates and other documentation currently used for imports into the EU will be accepted’ by the UK authorities, although after the 6 month transition period importers will ‘need to use a new UK health certificate’ (5);
- if entering the UK via a EU27 member state consignments ‘will need to have had full veterinary checks in a recognised EU BIP’, where this has not taken place ‘consignments must enter the UK through a UK BIP in the same way as a direct import from outside the EU’ (5);
- UK importers sourcing from non-EU countries will ‘no longer have access to the EU’s import system TRACES (Trade Control and Expert System)’, but will ‘need to use a new UK system called the Import of products, animals, food and feed system (IPAFFS)’ (5).
The UK government suggests that those involved in exporting livestock products to the UK may wish to contact the APHA Centre for International Trade Carlisle for further guidance (general enquiries can use the email: SSC.Carlisle@apha.gov.uk).
The shift away from EU import control systems to UK only systems could slow down trade unless the transition is a smooth one. This would then compound the human resource constraints the UK meat import and export inspection services will face.
| Comment and Analysis The shortage of veterinary staff in the UK in a context where 95% of vets employed in the meat processing sector graduated outside of the UK, raises questions as to the impact a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would have on the efficiency and international credibility of UK SPS meat inspection services.This could have a two-fold effect, namelya) it could give rise to an export surge of UK meat products to non-EU markets, as a result of the failure of the UK meat inspection service to meet EU import requirements; andb)it could reduce the efficiency or border clearance operations and cause delays in imports of meat products requiring SPS clearance before entering the UK. The potential for sudden export surges of UK meat products to non-EU markets would arise from the virtual halting of UK meat exports to EU27 markets. This would be a result of both a weakening of UK in-plant meat processing inspections and the absence of certification of UK meat plants as required under EU rules dealing with imports from non-EU member states. This would affect some 192,000 tonnes UK poultry meat exports to the EU27 (mostly poultry parts) and 127,000 tonnes of UK beef exports to EU27 markets. UK producers would then need to find alternative non-EU markets for a volume of poultry meat equivalent to more than double (+136%) current UK extra-EU exports, and a volume of beef exports equivalent to almost 15 times the level of current UK extra-EU exports of beef products. This could lead to a surge in UK meat products exports to 3rd country markets where SPS certification requirements are less stringent (including ACP markets). The table in annex 1 sets out the value and volume of current UK exports of poultry meat and frozen beef to ACP markets. Unfortunately this does not provide the whole picture since the imposition of Avian Influenza (AI) related restrictions on poultry meat imports in December 2016 by South Africa severely reduced UK exports of poultry meat. Thus whereas in 2018 the UK exported only 501 tonnes of poultry meat to South Africa in 2016 the UK had exported some 43,782 tonnes (44.7% of UK extra-EU poultry meat exports, compared to a mere 0.5% in 2018). With the progress in lifting AI related SPS import restrictions, under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit the SACU market could become a particular target for UK exporters displaced from EU27 markets. In the beef sector in terms of ACP markets, in recent years exports of UK beef have increased to South Africa and Ghana in Africa and Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean. The governments of ACP countries with domestic livestock sectors which they are seeking to develop will need to take care they have the policy tools available to deal with potential export surges from the UK. Southern African and Caribbean countries will probably need to pay particular attention in this regard, particular where under ‘UK-only’ Continuity Agreements, existing EPA commitment restricting their rights to use non-tariff trade policy tools have been rolled over. In terms of the impact on ACP meat exports to the UK of the impending crisis in the UK meat sector SPS inspection service, only two ACP countries would be affected, namely Namibia and Botswana. However in recent years both countries have launched market diversification efforts which have reduced their dependence on the UK market in their exports to the EU. For fresh and chilled beef exports, Botswana has reduced its dependence on the UK market from 87% in 2014 to 47% in 2018, while Namibia has reduced its dependence from 61% to 33% of its fresh and chilled beef exports to the EU. Given the sensitivity of the trade in fresh and chilled beef to border clearance delays, both Namibia ad Botswana would be advised to either continue their efforts to diversify away from exporting to the UK market or pay particular attention to ensuring their routes to markets in the UK are ‘Brexit-proofed’ against any staff shortages in the UK meat sector SPS related border clearance service. These various options will need to be evaluated in light of the prospect of higher beef prices in the UK market in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and the UK governments’ commitment to accepting ‘health certificates and other documentation currently used for imports into the EU’ for six months after a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. ACP Beef Exporters Likely to be Impacted by Constraints in UK SPS Import Inspection Services (2018)
Source: EC, Market Access Data Base The diversification away from the UK market in trade with the EU is less pronounced for frozen beef exports from Botswana. In the case of Namibia some level of market diversification is underway, with dependence on the UK market for frozen beef exports to the EU having fallen from 80% in 2014 to 67% in 2018. However this took place in the context of a dramatic fall in the overall volume of Namibian frozen beef exports to the EU (-80.3%). |
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Sources:
(1) globalmeatnews.comUK-meat-vet-shortage-highlighted’, 30 May 2019
https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2019/05/30/UK-meat-vet-shortage-highlighted
(2) House of Lords, ‘Brexit: farm animal welfare’, European Union Committee, 5th Report of Session 2017–19, 25 July 2017
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/15/15.pdf
(3) freshplaza.com ‘Agriculture excluded from list of post-Brexit critical jobs’, 3 June 2019
https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9110707/uk-agriculture-excluded-from-list-of-post-brexit-critical-jobs/
(4) gov.uk, ‘Importing live animals or animal products from non-EU countries’, 20 May 2019
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/importing-live-animals-or-animal-products-from-non-eu-countries
(5) gov.uk, ‘Importing animals, animal products and high-risk food and feed not of animal origin if the UK leaves the EU with no deal’, 10 April 2019
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/importing-animals-animal-products-and-high-risk-food-and-feed-not-of-animal-origin-if-the-UK-leaves-the-EU-with-no-deal
Annex 1: ACP Countries Likely to Be Impacts by UK Poultry and Beef Export Surges (2018)
| Poultry Chilled & Frozen (0207) (€ & Tonnes) | Beef Frozen (0202) | ||||
| Country | Import Value | Import Volume | Country | Import Value | Import Volume |
| Africa | 27,245,101 | 34,814 | Africa | 2,007,434 | 1,995 |
| Angola | 7,675,355 | 8,248 | Ghana | 906,104 | 844 |
| Gabon | 4,835,786 | 5,755 | South Africa | 762,468 | 826 |
| Equ. Guinea | 3,610,102 | 4,076 | Ivory Coast | 85,843 | 79 |
| Liberia | 2,261,468 | 3,691 | Gabon | 105,326 | 75 |
| Guinea | 1,849,311 | 2,517 | Liberia | 43,981 | 48 |
| Congo | 1,374,564 | 1,992 | DRC | 47,527 | 47 |
| Benin | 1,570,045 | 1,794 | Congo | 17,167 | 25 |
| Ghana | 1,136,637 | 1,476 | Senegal | 19,951 | 25 |
| Sierra Leone | 833,566 | 1,190 | Sierra Leone | 15,821 | 25 |
| Togo | 733,948 | 1,119 | Equ. Guinea | 3,252 | 1 |
| Comoros | 811,760 | 840 | |||
| DRC | 583,161 | 706 | Caribbean | 603,131 | 113 |
| Mozambique | 528,509 | 663 | Trinidad & Tob. | 425,084 | 98 |
| South Africa | 833,566 | 501 | Barbados | 155,148 | 13 |
| Cape Verde | 42,831 | 50 | Jamaica | 22,899 | 2 |
| Seychelles | 32,957 | 47 | |||
| Ivory Coast | 30,649 | 47 | |||
| Nigeria | 28,304 | 26 | |||
| Guinea Bissau | 17,763 | 25 | |||
| Namibia | 24,864 | 25 | |||
| Caribbean | |||||
| 12,734,175 | 11,365 | ||||
| Haiti | 5,672,606 | 7,214 | |||
| Trinidad & Tob. | 747,945 | 1,127 | |||
| St Vincent & Gre | 3,015,232 | 1,987 | |||
| St Lucia | 1,916,209 | 1,215 | |||
| Barbados | 1,234,379 | 738 | |||
| Dominica | 100,479 | 71 | |||
| Antigua & Bar. | 15,634 | 7 | |||
| St Kitts & Nevis | 31,691 | 6 | |||
Source: EC, Market Access Data Base