Summary
Given the role the London Cocoa Future market plays in setting the benchmark for cocoa prices, through its impact on the value of the £ a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit could have a significant impact on cocoa prices. With growing investment in local cocoa value added processing for the domestic market in countries such as Ghana, the application of the UK’s currently proposed post-Brexit unilateral MFN tariff schedule could create new market opportunities for the export of not fatted cocoa paste and cocoa butter to the UK market. However, given the existing ownership structure of value added cocoa processing activities, there may be a reluctance to plan for an expansion of local value added processing to serve the UK market since this would directly compete with similar facilities in the Netherlands and Belgium which are part of the same corporate family. Read more “No-Deal Brexit Could Adversely Impact Cocoa Prices but Open Up opportunities for Increased Value Added Cocoa product Exports to the UK”
EU Sugar Production Adjusting After Quota Abolition and In Face of Low Prices, with Renewed Growth in Imports and Reduced Exports
Summary
In the face of sustained low prices EU sugar production is declining as part of the now post-quota abolition market adjustment, with lower areas under sugar beet being contracted by beet processing companies. There is a growing variation in prices across EU markets with ACP exporters needing to enhance their marketing operations in the EU to maximum total revenues gained on sales to the EU. ACP export volumes to the EU nearly doubled in 2018/19 compared to the depressed levels of 2017/18, while EU export volume fell back dramatically (-53%), but nevertheless remained above pre-quota abolition export levels (+23%). ACP sugar exporters have a disproportionate dependence on the UK market with Belize Guyana and Fiji being particularly exposed. ACP sugar exporters will thus need to keep a close eye on developments around Brexit in the coming year, given the impact a ‘Hard’ Brexit could have on price levels on both the UK and EU27 markets. Read more “EU Sugar Production Adjusting After Quota Abolition and In Face of Low Prices, with Renewed Growth in Imports and Reduced Exports”
Evidence Suggests Extending Sugar Content Tax to Snacks Would be More Effective in Combatting Obesity
Summary
Public health concerns are leading to a gradual but sustained reduction in EU sugar sector consumption. With the EU sugar sector finding a new post-quota equilibrium this is likely to reduce market opportunities in the EU for ACP sugar exporters. This will require improved marketing of sugar in the EU and the identification and exploitation of markets beyond the EU. This will also need to include at the national level in ACP sugar exporting countries structured dialogues with the international sugar companies involved in local sugar production on a common strategy for market and revenue diversification which protects and promotes the economic well-being of local sugar farmers and sugar sector workers. Read more “Evidence Suggests Extending Sugar Content Tax to Snacks Would be More Effective in Combatting Obesity”
EU Exports of Poultry Meat Continue to Increase Dramatically
Summary
EU poultry meat production and consumption continues to increase, with this generating a 12% growth in exports in the first half of 2019 and the prospect of continued growth in exports up to 2021. EU poultry meat exports are once again taking off to South Africa as the December 2016 AI based import restrictions are progressively removed. The expansion of EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa is unlikely to ease in the coming years with this posing policy dilemmas for governments where local poultry industries exist. Given current trends in EU policy, African government are likely to come under increased pressure to remove all existing non-tariff measures which inhibit EU poultry meat exports, where these are in technical violation of EPA commitments. These pressures would be intensified by a ‘No-Deal’ of ‘Hard’ Brexit from 1st January 2021. Read more “EU Exports of Poultry Meat Continue to Increase Dramatically”
EU FTA Implementation Report Highlights the Importance of Trade Agreements to EU Agro-Food Exports
Summary
The latest EC FTA implementation report highlighted the particular importance of such agreement to EU agro-food exporters. Attention is increasingly being focused on the removal of non-tariff barriers to EU exporters in the context of the full implementation of agreed tariff reduction commitments. While in 2018 exports to sub-Sahara Africa were an exception to the overall trend in the expansion of the value of EU agro-food exports, the decline in the value of exports to sub-Saharan Africa was less marked in countries where fully implemented FTAs were in place. A review of trends in EU exports of agro-food products where the implementation of an EU FTA had been completed (the EU-South Africa TDCA) revealed that in those products where the margins of tariff preferences generated by the agreement were significant a remarkable growth in the value of EU exports occurred between 2009 and 2016, with in most of these product areas this growth continuing through to 2018 despite South Africa’s economic difficulties (though be it at a slower rate). This illustrates the true value of EU trade agreements to the EU agro-food sector in trade relations with sub-Saharan Africa. Read more “EU FTA Implementation Report Highlights the Importance of Trade Agreements to EU Agro-Food Exports”
Uganda Could Face a New Import Ban if Sub-Standard Producers Not Eliminated From EU Export Supply Chains
Summary
Uganda has once again be warned by the EC over the export of chemical residue contaminated horticulture products, with the report of an October inspection visit by the EU FVO to determine the adequacy of national control systems now awaited. In the longer term a more serious threat arises from increasingly strict EU phytosanitary controls which will require the completion and submission to the EC of risk assessments (including detailed action plans) before goods will be allowed on the EU market. This could lead to the closure of the EU market until such risk assessments have been completed and approved. The UK’s departure from the EU could however lead to phytosanitary controls being introduced in trade with the UK based solely on UK only risk assessments determined by the agro-climatic conditions and patterns of production in the UK (rather than the EU as a whole). As a consequence for some products future UK phytosanitary controls could be far less stringent than EU requirements. However a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit would also see the UK introduce its own autonomous MFN tariff schedule which will see the complete removal of existing high EU MFN duties on virtually all existing Ugandan exports to the UK. Read more “Uganda Could Face a New Import Ban if Sub-Standard Producers Not Eliminated From EU Export Supply Chains”
Spanish Citrus Producers Intensify Pressure for More Controls on Citrus Imports from South Africa
Summary
New arrangements have been set in place for phytosanitary clearing of South African citrus through the port of Vigo. This is causing consternation in the financially stressed Spanish citrus sector, with calls being made for a ‘political solution’ to ease their plight. A variety of trade restrictive measures are being advanced including: the designation of a single EU port of entry to maximize the effectiveness of phytosanitary controls; EU in country inspections in South Africa; mandatory cold treatment for all imports; precautionary border closures when a maximum permitted level of interceptions occurs; and the invocation of the safeguard provisions of the EU-SADC EPA. However the commercial implications of many of these measures would lead generate fierce resistance from northern European commercial interests (traders, port authorities, supermarkets). Any pro-active use of pre-export risk assessment requirements against the South African citrus sector meanwhile would send shock waves across all ACP fruit and vegetable exporting countries are of which have weaker compliance enforcement capacities than the highly organized South African citrus sector. Read more “Spanish Citrus Producers Intensify Pressure for More Controls on Citrus Imports from South Africa”
Report Reviews Impact of Current CAP Financial Instruments on Developing Countries
Summary
A study for the European Committee of the Regions has found ‘CAP subsidies continue to have a production-stimulating effect’, with EU production and exports being greater than would be the case in the absence of CAP subsidies. The case studies in the report look at the effects of CAP subsidies in regard to milk powders, chicken meat and processed tomato products on vulnerable developing countries (VDCs – which includes all ACP countries). It draws nuanced conclusions in regard to the effects of the provision of CAP subsidies but on the basis of the terms of reference of the report largely neglects the effects of CAP related EU agricultural trade policies on VDCs. The report calls for: ‘greater disciplines on coupled support payments’; adjustment to EU market management measures so they do not destabilize prices for VDC producers; ‘the phasing out of decoupled payments for income support’, and ‘the creation of a platform allowing stakeholders from VDCs to be involved in a dialogue on PCD and agri-food trade issues’. Read more “Report Reviews Impact of Current CAP Financial Instruments on Developing Countries”
Pressure Mounting on Cocoa Sector Multinationals to Pay Living Wage as part of Sustainability Accreditation
Summary
The Conseil du Cafe-Cacao (CCC) in Cote d’Ivoire and COCOBOD in Ghana are proposing to withdraw support from cocoa sustainability certification schemes unless companies commit to payment of the ‘living income differential’ designed to deliver to farmers 70% of a $2,600 a ton (Freight On Board) target price. The governments of Nigeria, Cameroon and Peru are also exploring the introduction of similar minimum prices for cocoa producers. Ethical trading companies have meanwhile endorsed the producer government’s calls for higher prices within the framework of a five principles approach to enhanced supply chain management. Read more “Pressure Mounting on Cocoa Sector Multinationals to Pay Living Wage as part of Sustainability Accreditation”
Tremendous Short Term Scope for African Avocado Exports Identified Although Long Term Market Saturation in the EU Likely
Summary
While ACP exporters have seen considerable growth in avocado exports to the EU since 2008, their market share has been undermined since the entry into force of the EU-Andean Pact Trade Agreement in 2013, with this being particularly acute on the UK market. In addition while consumer demand for avocadoes continues to grow in the EU, the rate of growth is slowing down. Nevertheless African ACP countries have considerable unexploited production and export potential, with a considerable growth in the area under avocadoes being underway. The UK governments’ decision to remove MFN tariffs and import levies on avocadoes post Brexit, will further undermine the position of all but the most competitive ACP avocado exporters on the UK market. This is likely to be compounded by the potential of Brexit to disrupt the functioning of triangular supply chains for the export of avocadoes to the UK market via EU27 member states. Policy dialogues between the governments of ACP avocado exporting countries and the EU27 and UK authorities on the administrative arrangements required to minimise customs and border clearance delays for products which enjoy duty free access to both the EU27 and UK market are needed, with this dialogue being extended to arrangements for SPS inspections along triangular supply chains. Read more “Tremendous Short Term Scope for African Avocado Exports Identified Although Long Term Market Saturation in the EU Likely”