Summary
Despite a decline in overall EU poultry meat exports in 2020, exports to Ghana and the DRC two major export destinations increased. While exports to sub-Saharan Africa as a whole fell, due to the application of import control measures by the South African government, excluding trade with South Africa, EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa grew overall. Looking at longer term trends to non-South African sub-Saharan African markets EU export volumes increased 70% between 2012 and 2020 while the average price of such imports fell 26.4%. In the sub-category of frozen chicken meat, the average price of imports from the EU fell 29% while volumes almost doubled. While the EC consistently argues the EU does not ‘dump’ poultry meat on sub-Saharan African market, the undeniable reality is that since 2012 average unit prices of EU poultry meat exports have fallen. Despite this reality, the EC continues to pursue a nominal policy which restricts the ability of governments, in African countries which are major recipients of EU poultry meat exports, to make use of the kind of quantitative controls on imports routinely used by the EU in its trade with major poultry meat exporters.
Recent Trends in EU Poultry Meat Exports to Sub-Saharan Africa
The EC’s February 2021 Poultry market dashboard revealed that while from January to November 2020 total EU poultry meat exports (excluding the UK) were down 4% (-66,684 tonnes), EU exports to Ghana and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were up 15.6% and 28.6% respectively compared to the corresponding period in 2019 (+26,155 and +22,651 tonnes respectively) (1).
Ghana was the leading export market for EU poultry meat exports during 2020, accounting for 12.2% of total extra-EU exports. This was ahead of the Philippines and Ukraine, which accounted for 11.9% and 8.5% of extra-EU exports respectively (1).
In fourth place came the DRC with 6.1% of extra EU poultry meat exports, followed by South Africa which accounted for 5.4%.
These sub-Saharan African countries were 3 of the top 5 markets for EU poultry meat exports from January to November 2020. Taken together these three sub-Saharan African countries took 23.7% of total extra-EU exports over this period compared to 22.0% in 2019 (1).
By the end of 2020 total EU poultry meat exports to Ghana had reached 210,324 tonnes (up from 185,389 tonnes in 2019), increasing 13.5%, while imports from the DRC had reached 98,641 tonnes (up from 76,507 tonnes in 2019), increasing of 28.9%.
In contrast total EU poultry meat exports to South Africa fell 32.2% to 86,923 tonnes (down from 128,308 tonnes in 2019) (2).
Main Sub-Saharan African Markets for EU Poultry Meat Exports (tonnes) 2019-2020)
| 2020 | 2019 | %+ | 2020 | 2019 | %+ | ||
| West Africa | Central Africa | ||||||
| Ghana | 210,324 | 185,389 | +135% | DRC | 98,641 | 76,507 | +28.9% |
| Benin | 62,294 | 76,978 | -19.8% | Gabon | 38,654 | 41,227 | -6.2% |
| Guinea | 28,599 | 28,717 | -0.4% | Congo | 28,620 | 32,522 | -12.0% |
| Liberia | 28,048 | 24,393 | -13.0% | Eq. Guinea | 15,516 | 17,156 | -9.6% |
| Togo | 13,535 | 22,016 | -38.5% | Southern Africa | |||
| Cape Verde | 11,046 | 12,604 | -12.4% | South Africa | 86,923 | 128,308 | -32.2% |
| Sierra Leone | 13,169 | 9,439 | +39.5% | Mozambique | 13,972 | 13,980 | -0.06% |
Source: EC, Poultry Trade Data
https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DashboardPoultry/PoultryTrade.html
For the whole of 2020 EU poultry meat exports exceeded 10,000 tonnes to a further 10 sub-Saharan African countries. Collectively these 10 sub-Saharan African markets took 253,453 tonnes in 2020 This represented a 9.3% decline in EU poultry meat export volumes to these markets compared to 2019, when fully 279,437 tonnes were exported. The bulk of these markets where more than 1,000 tonnes were exported were in West and Central Africa (2).
Taking sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, total EU poultry meat exports in 2020 reached 717,093 tonnes, with volumes below 10,000 tonnes being exported to a range of other countries, totalling 67,752 tonnes. This was down 4% compared to 2019 when total EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan African countries reached fully 746,404 tonnes. EU poultry meat export volumes to South Africa were the principle determining factor in this overall decline in EU exports to sub-Saharan African markets (2).
Trends in EU poultry meat exports to South Africa in 2020 were driven in part by Covid-19 linked disruptions to the operations of South African ports and the functioning of supply chains, and in part by the introduction of Avian Influenza linked import restrictions (see companion epamonitoring.net article, ‘Conditional Lifting of South African HPAI Import Ban on Dutch Poultry Meat Follows New HPAI Based Ban on Polish Poultry Meat’, 5 May 2020). In the longer term since 2013, these trends have been driven by South African efforts to design and implement a poultry sector trade policy which aimed at halting the stagnation and decline in South African poultry meat production growth, which was occurring despite the rapid expansion of consumer demand.
Over time a South African poultry sector trade policy has been established which now provides more comprehensive protection to South African poultry producers in the face of low-cost imports (3). Imports which are seen as being ‘dumped’ on the South African market (see companion epamonitoring.net article ‘South Africa Poultry Producers Seek Further Anti-Dumping Duties’, 4 March 2021). This forms part of a broader Poultry Sector Master Plan designed to restore production and employment growth along the whole of the poultry sector supply chain (see companion epamonitoring.net articles, ‘South Africa’s Poultry Sector on the Road to Recovery as Stricter Trade Regime Applied’, 3 December 2020).
To date, the adoption of this comprehensive trade policy approach has seen the reduction in South African imports from all of the ‘big three’ global poultry meat exporters and has avoided the substitution of sources of imports between these three main poultry meat exporters, when only partial measures are set in place. Up to November 2020 South African poultry meat imports were down 10% compared to the corresponding period in 2019 (-44,986 tonnes). This created market space for a renewed expansion of investment, production, and employment in the South African poultry sector. The developments in EU poultry meat exports to South Africa thus have their own dynamic.
Longer Term Volume and Price Trends in EU Poultry Meat Exports to Sub-Saharan Africa
The dynamic in the EU-South Africa poultry meat trade does however influence patterns of EU exports to other sub-Saharan African markets, given the dominant role South Africa played as a destination for EU poultry meat exports up to 2017. In 2016 South Africa took fully 17.4% of total extra EU poultry meat exports. However, with the introduction of Avian Influence linked restrictions on imports from December 2016, EU poultry meat exports to South Africa fell 195,26 tonnes in 2017 (-71.6%).
While this saw an unprecedented fall in total EU poultry meat exports (-1.3%), this decline was not as severe as would otherwise have been the case, given the 21.4% increase in EU poultry meat exports to other sub-Saharan African markets (+100,433 tonnes). In the preceding period it had taken 4 years for EU export growth to non-South African sub-Saharan markets to expand poultry meat export by around 100,000 tonnes.
Against this background excluding developments in the EU export trade to South Africa we find EU exports to the other 12 main sub-Saharan African markets actually rose 3.9% from 2019 to 2020 (from 541,333 tonnes to 562,418 tonnes), while exports to sub-Saharan Africa as a whole (excluding South Africa) increased 2%. This occurred, despite the overall decline in extra-EU poultry meat exports in 2020, which preliminary EC estimates issued in December 2020, put at -6% (4). What is more in 2020 the average price of EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan African fell 5.3% compared to 2019 (4.3% to non-South African sub-Saharan African markets).
Taking a longer-term perspective since 2012 (excluding South Africa) EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa have increased 70% while the average price of these total EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan African markets has fallen 26.4% (from €1.2 per kg to €0.89 per kg).
EU Exports of All Poultry Meat to Sub-Saharan Africa (and Excluding South Africa) and Frozen chicken meat (Volume and Average Unit price)
| All EU Poultry Meat Types | Frozen Chicken | ||||||
| SSA
Tonnes |
SSA (Excl. RSA)
Tonnes |
SSA°
(excl. RSA) €/kg |
SSA (Excl. RSA)
Tonnes |
SSA°
(excl. RSA) €/kg |
|||
| 2020 | 717,093 | 630,170 | €0.89 | 513,411 | €0.78 | ||
| 2019 | 745,404 | 618,096 | €0.93 | 503,238 | €0.81 | ||
| 2018 | 684,372 | 602,019 | €0.88 | 487,259 | €0.76 | ||
| 2017 | 647,156 | 570,075 | €0.90 | 443,895 | €0.79 | ||
| 2016 | 741,974 | 469,632 | €0.82 | 353,220 | €0.72 | ||
| 2015 | 648,640 | 437,083 | €1.13 | 324,222 | €1.00 | ||
| 2014 | 602,155 | 405,288 | €1.19 | 289,221 | €1.06 | ||
| 2013 | 524,256 | 372,315 | €1.21 | 262,027 | €1.07 | ||
| 2012 | 500,996 | 370,786 | €1.21 | 260,159 | €1.10 | ||
° Ave Value Product weight
Source: EC, Poultry Trade Data
https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DashboardPoultry/PoultryTrade.html
If only the sub-category of frozen chicken meat is considered (which now accounts for 81.5% of total EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa) between 2012 and 2020 the average price of EU frozen chicken meat exports to sub-Saharan African markets fell 29%, while EU export volumes for frozen chicken meat increased 97.3% (from €1.10 to € 0.78).
While a more detailed analysis of volume and price trends is required on a product by product, country by country basis, it is these broad trends which provide the basis for widespread allegation of EU poultry meat ‘dumping’ on sub-Saharan African markets.
| Comment and Analysis While the European Commission consistently argues the EU does not dump poultry meat on sub-Saharan African markets, the undeniable reality is that since 2012, the average unit price of poultry meat exports to non-South Africa sub-Saharan African markets has fallen 26.4%, while export volumes have increased 70%. For the main category of EU poultry meat exports to non-South African sub-Saharan African market the fall in prices and increase in export volumes is even more pronounced, with average price declines of 29% and an increase in export volumes of 97.3%.This has occurred despite the cost disadvantages faced by EU producers compared to other major global poultry meat exporters (see companion epamonitoring.net article, ‘Report highlights vulnerability of EU poultry sector to liberalisation of trade in poultry meat’, 5 September 2017). This needs to e seen in the context of an EU poultry sector trade policy, which, despite the cost disadvantages faced, sustains EU production at levels between 8% to 10 above domestic EU consumption needs (1).This is only partly attributable to the structure of EU poultry meat demand, with more fundamentally the EU’s strictly controlled import regime, which is based on carefully managed tariff rate quota system (TRQs) playing the decisive role. Significantly in absolute tonnage terms this EU production surplus continues to grow (see companion epamonitoring.net article ‘Growth in EU27 Poultry Meat Exports Projected on the Basis of Continued EU/UK Duty Free Trade’, 12 January 2021).The quantitative restrictions on the volume of poultry meat which can be imported, which the EU’s TRQ system generates means scarcely any imports take place outside of these TRQ arrangements, given the high MFN tariffs otherwise applied. These TRQs are extensively used in the EU’s relations with major poultry meat exporters. The management of these TRQ arrangements also allows the EC considerable room for manoeuvre when market crisis situations emerge in the poultry meat sector. In the face of Covid-19 linked disruptions to demand for poultry meat, in April 2020 the European poultry association AVEC called for the EC to review the application of its TRQ based import regime for poultry meat to ensure import levels reflect the collapse of demand for out-of-home poultry meat consumption (5) (see epamonitoring.net article ‘Restrictions on Poultry Meat Imports Called for in the Face of Covid-19 Impact on EU Poultry Market’, 7 May 2020). From January to November 2020 EU poultry meat exports were down 14.3% (1). In this context the common EC assertion the EC’s poultry meat sector trade is entirely market driven, sound somewhat hollow, since they are only ‘market driven’ in the context of a strictly managed EU poultry import regime. It is ironic that despite the EU’s own extensive use of TRQs (a form of quantitative restriction on impots of poultry meat) the EC has sought to prohibit the use of quantitative restrictions on imports from the EU under its various economic partnership agreements with African Caribbean and Pacific countries. While the EC maintains governments in West Africa are free to make use of trade policy measures in regulating imports of poultry meat, the reality is that in the main West African market for EU poultry meat exports, Ghana, these options are constrained by the provisions of the EU-Ghana EPA. Should the government of Ghana seek to make use of quantitative restrictions on imports of poultry meat from the EU (similar to the measures the EU uses in its trade with major poultry meat exporters) then it is likely the newly appointed EC Chief Trade Enforcement Officer would question the application of such measures, with this then being challenged under the dispute settlement procedures of the EU-Ghana EPA. This has certainly been the experience of South Africa to date whenever it has sought to use the safeguard mechanisms nominally provided for under its trade agreement with the EU. In the coming period, given the EU’s growing policy emphasis on enforcing compliance with commitments entered into under trade agreements, those EPA signatories such as Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire which seek to restrict poultry meat imports from the EU, could well find such measures being challenged. It is noteworthy for example how despite the rapid growth in EU exports of poultry meat to neighbouring Central African countries (increasing from 88,290 tonnes in 2010 to 214,805 tonnes in 2020) EU poultry meat exports to Cameroon have increased from only 220 tonnes in 2010 to only 1,197 tonnes in 2020. The trade policy measures set in place by the Government of Cameroon have effectively insulated Cameroon from this wider trend in EU poultry meat exports to Central Africa. While to date the EC has chosen not to challenge these Cameroonian trade policy measures, it remains to be seen whether this will continue to be the case. Cote d’Ivoire is in a similar position. Despite the rapid increase in EU poultry meat exports to West Africa there has been only a limited expansion of exports to Cote d’Ivoire. Indeed, up to 2015 EU poultry meat exports to Cote d’Ivoire never exceeded 1,000 tonnes. It has only been since 2015 that an expansion in EU poultry meat exports has begun, reaching over 9,000 tonnes in 2018 before falling back to only 5,208 tonnes in 2020. As with Cameroon, it remains to be seen whether the EC will continue to tolerate Cote d’Ivoire’s use of trade policy measures to regulate imports of poultry meat from the EU. It is against this background that an additional area of concern is now emerging. In 2020, the EC reported EU27 poultry meat exports to the UK of some 613,226 tonnes. This was down substantially on 2019 levels (-20%). Similarly, in terms of EU imports from the UK, between January to November 2020, during which period the UK remained a part of the EU customs union and single market, EU imports of poultry meat from the UK fell from 313,671 tonnes to 238,537 tonnes (-24%). While no doubt this was partly linked to the Covid-19 linked reduction in HORECA sector demand and the trade disruptions generated by the pandemic, it may also have bene partly linked to a process of reorientation of EU27 sourcing, prior to the UK’s formal departure from the EU customs union and more importantly, the EU single market (see companion epamonitoring.net article ‘Non-Tariff Issues Threaten to Undermine UK Meat Exports to EU27 Markets and Generate Displace of UK Exports to ACP Markets’, 2 February 2021). It remains to be seen what impact the introduction of full UK customs and SPS import controls from 1 April to 1 July 2021 will have on EU poultry meat exports to the UK. Currently, in terms of UK exports of livestock product to the EU since 1st January 2021 significant problems are being reported, not only along UK to Ireland routes (4), but also along the UK-Rotterdam route (5). A danger of significant trade diversion would appear to exist, with sub-Saharan African markets once again being seen as ‘markets of last resort’ for the disposal of product for which an alternative market no longer exists. |
Sources
(1) EC, Poultry Meat dashboard, 3 Feb 2021
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/poultry-meat-dashboard_en.pdf
(2) EC, Poultry Trade Data
https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DashboardPoultry/PoultryTrade.html
(3) Businesslive.co.za, ‘Cutting imports will help poultry sector grow and create jobs’, 25 January 2021
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-01-25-cutting-imports-will-help-poultry-sector-grow-and-create-jobs/
(4) EC, EU Agricultural Outlook: For Markets, Income and Environment 2020-2030, December 2020- statistics
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/medium-term-outlook-tables_en.pdf
(5) AVEC, ‘The impact of the COVID 19 Crisis on the EU Poultry sector’, 21st April 2020
https://pluimvee.be/src/Frontend/Files/Core/CKFinder/files/2020_04_21%20The%20Impact%20of%20the%20COVID-19%20crisis%20on%20the%20Poultry%20Sector.pdf