Summary
EU poultry exports to sub-Saharan Africa continue to grow, despite setbacks on trade into West Africa linked to the oil price collapse. Given the continuous growth in EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, it is apparent that the scope for local poultry sector development will be strongly linked to the future use of non-tariff trade policy measures. The use of these, which could well be brought into question under the newly concluded economic partnership agreements.
Routine reporting of developments in the EU poultry sector show EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa have continued to grow in 2016. In the first six months of the year the 2 main sub-Saharan African markets for EU poultry meat exports took fully 26.4% of total extra-EU poultry meat exports. This compares to 23.5% in the first 6 months of 2015. This occurred on the back of a 9.9% increase in total extra-EU poultry meat exports in the first 6 months of 2016.
This is in line with the projected expansion in total EU global poultry meat exports for 2016 set out in the latest EC short term outlook on EU arable, dairy and meat markets. Looking forward to 2017 this growth in EU poultry meat exports is projected to continue, with export volumes at the end of 2017 expected to be 12.2% above 2015 levels.
The trend in EU poultry meat exports the first six months of 2016 was dominated by a 45% increase in EU poultry meat exports to South Africa, relative to the corresponding period in 2015. This growth far outweighed the 17% contraction in EU poultry meat exports to Benin, which was linked to the declining demand for smuggled poultry meat in Nigeria, in the face of the collapse of oil prices and the consequent economic recession in Nigeria. This extended the trend in declining levels of EU frozen poultry meat exports to Benin which began in 2015.
EU Poultry Meat Exports to Selected Destinations (2012-2016)
| 2012
% Tonnes |
2013
% Tonnes |
2014
% Tonnes |
2015
% Tonnes |
2016 Jan-June
% Tonnes |
Compared to Jan-June 2015 | |
| Extra EU Exports | 1,431,125 | 1,428,457 | 1,503,984 | 1,491,007 | 783,097 | |
| South Africa | 9.2% 131,832 | 11.1% 158,548 | 13.5 203,412 | 14.3% 213,413 | 17.2% 133,061 | +45% |
| Benin | 9.8% 139,817 | 9.7% 139,247 | 10.9% 163,844 | 9.2% 136,601 | 9.2% 71,671 | -17% |
| Ghana | 4.8% 69,156 | 5.3% 75,252 | 3.8% 56,900 | 4.6% 68,799 | 4.8% 57,353 | +7% |
| Sub-total | 340,805 | 373,047 | 424,156 | 418,813 | 262,085 | |
| % share total | 23.8% | 26.1% | 28.2% | 28.1% | 33.5% |
Source: EC, ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry Management Committee’, 29 August 2016 http://slideplayer.com/slide/2260284/
The continued expansion of EU poultry meat exports to South Africa is linked to the ineffectiveness of South African government efforts over the past 3 years to try and curb poultry meat imports (see companion article, ‘EU Poultry Exports to South Africa Begin to Bite’).
The first six months of 2016 also saw a 4% increase in poultry meat exports to Ghana, continuing the recovery in EU poultry meat exports to the Ghanaian market which began in 2015, after aborted Ghanaian government attempts to more tightly regulate poultry meat imports in 2014.
By September the DRC had joined South Africa, Ghana, and Benin in the top 8 destinations for extra EU poultry meat exports.
Sources:
EC, ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry Management Committee’, 29 August 2016
http://slideplayer.com/slide/2260284/
EC ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets’, 17 November 2016
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/poultry/presentations/market-situation_en.pdf
EC, ‘Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2016 and 2017’, October 2016
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/pdf/2016-10_en.pdf
Thepoultrysite.com, ‘USDA International Egg and Poultry: Sub-Saharan Africa’, 17 July 2014, http://www.thepoultrysite.com/reports/?id=3982
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Comment and Analysis Since 2004 a combination of population growth, rising incomes and growing demand for low cost protein, has seen consumption of poultry meat in sub-Saharan Africa grow 99%. While this poultry meat consumption growth could have strong rural development spin offs, unfortunately this growing consumer demand is increasingly being met from imports of frozen poultry parts. Between 2004 and 2014 imports of poultry meat grew a massive 209% while sub-Saharan African production grew only 57%. By 2014 imports of poultry meat accounted for 44% of sub-Saharan African poultry meat consumption compared to less than 30% in 2004.
The EU is playing a growing role in this trade in frozen poultry parts, with SSA markets taking a growing volume of total EU poultry meat exports. Whereas in 2009 SSA markets accounted for 23% of extra-EU poultry meat exports, by 2015 this had risen to 47%. This occurred against the background of an overall expansion of total extra-EU poultry meat exports of 50%.
It can be argued that this trade, which largely consists of residual poultry parts for which there is no significant market opportunities in the EU. This is closing off opportunities for rural development in a range of sub-Saharan African countries, linked to the development of locally integrated poultry supply chains.
EU poultry meat exports are not evenly distributed across Africa, with patterns of EU poultry meat exports being strongly influenced by national African trade policies. EU exports always enter national/regional markets through the easies point of entry, often as a means of circumventing non-tariff trade measures set in place in neighbouring countries in an efforts to support local poultry sector development. In this context the use of non-tariff trade policy tools plays an important role not only in patterns of EU poultry meat exports but also patterns of local poultry sector development in African countries.
EU poultry meat exports to Sub-Saharan Africa by Region – heading 0207 (tonnes) 2009-2014
Source: EC Market Access Data Base, see http://madb.europa.eu/madb/statistical_form.htm
It is against this background that the implementation of the recently concluded EU economic partnership agreements is a source of concern. These agreements contain a range of commitments which seek to abolish or inhibit the use of non-tariff trade policy measures. This impact which the implementation of trade agreement commitments can have on patterns of EU poultry meat exports is illustrated by the experience of South Africa since 2009 (see companion article ‘EU frozen poultry meat exports to South Africa begin to bite’).
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Key words: Poultry
Area for Posting: Poultry sector, General EPA, West Africa EPA, Central Africa EPA