Summary
EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa are once again on the rise after the shock of the SPS based partial closure of the South African market from December 2016. While growth is likely to continue it is unclear if the very strong growth in the first months of 2019 will be sustained. This is likely to be critically influences by the outcome of the Brexit process, with a no-deal Brexit creating enormous pressures on both EU27 and UK poultry meat exporters to find alternative markets or over 1 million tonnes of mutual trade in poultry meat.
After the export shock of the South African governments December 2016 decision to impose SPS based import restrictions on poultry meat imports from certain EU member states where Avian Influenza outbreaks had occurred, 2017 saw a of 6.7% decline in EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa(see accompanying epamonitoiring.net articles ‘Footloose nature of EU poultry meat exports to Africa highlighted by AI restrictions’, 5 June 2017 and ‘EU Poultry Meat Exports to Sub-Saharan Africa Down Only Marginally in 2017 Despite South African AI Based Import Restrictions’, 21 March 2018).
This decline in EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa occurred in the context of a 1.3% decline in total extra-EU poultry meat exports between 2016 and 2017 (from 1, 505, 30 tonnes to 1,486,072 tonnes).
EU Poultry Meat Exports to Sub-Saharan African Countries 2017-18 (Tonnes)
| 2017 | 2018 | % change | 2017 | 2018 | % change | ||
| West Africa | 373,774 | 370,246 | +1.4% | Central Africa | 170,604 | 197,447 | +15.7% |
| Benin | 104,992 | 92,132 | -12.2% | DRC | 59,222 | 73,708 | +24.5% |
| Ghana | 144,787 | 162,695 | +12.4% | Gabon | 48,181 | 44,449 | -7.7% |
| Togo | 19,699 | 20,772 | +5.4% | Congo | 33,230 | 29,576 | -11.0% |
| Liberia | 40,404 | 23,463 | -41.9% | Chad | 71 | 208 | +193.0% |
| Niger | 2,276 | 1,771 | -22.2% | CAR | 2,861 | 3,949 | +38.0% |
| Guinea | 21,592 | 27,863 | +29.0% | Equ Guinea | 15,552 | 15,405 | -0.95% |
| Cape Verde | 10,312 | 10,981 | +6.5% | Cameroon | 477 | 930 | +95.0% |
| Sierra Leone | 6,363 | 9,509 | +49.4% | Angola | 9,138 | 27,265 | +198.4% |
| Ivory Coast | 5,867 | 9,272 | +58.0% | Sao Tome & Pri | 1,872 | 1,957 | +4.5% |
| Mauritania | 8,772 | 6,850 | +11.9% | Eastern Africa | 14,068 | 13,570 | -3.8% |
| Guineas Bissau | 3,720 | 3,061 | -17.7% | Comoros | 11,750 | 11,365 | -3.3% |
| Nigeria | 210 | 399 | +90.0% | Madagascar | 25 | 0 | -100% |
| Senegal | 320 | 40 | -87.5% | Mauritius | 403 | 376 | -6.7% |
| Gambia | 4,313 | 1,225 | -71.6% | Seychelles | 679 | 568 | -16.3% |
| Mali | 44 | 91 | +106.8% | Kenya | 41 | 0 | -100% |
| Burkina Faso | 103 | 122 | +18.4% | Tanzania | 140 | 503 | +259.3% |
| Southern Africa | 86,274 | 101,440 | +17.5% | Uganda | 105 | 189 | +82% |
| South Africa | 76,825 | 81,127 | +5.6% | Burundi | 27 | 0 | -100% |
| Namibia | 4,685 | 7,318 | +56.2% | Djibouti | 388 | 208 | -46.4% |
| Mozambique | 3,016 | 6,994 | +131.9% | Eritrea | 2 | 5 | +150% |
| Zambia | 1,748 | 6,001 | +243.3% | Ethiopia | 67 | 33 | -50.7% |
| Somalia | 229 | 262 | +14.4% | ||||
| Sudan | 212 | 31 | -85.4% | ||||
| Total SSA | 644,720 | 682,703 | +5.9% | TOTAL EU | 1,486,072 | 1,579,891 | +6.3% |
Source: EC, Market Access Data Base https://madb.europa.eu/madb/statistical_form.htm
However 2018 saw a recovery in EU poultry meat exports to sub-Saharan Africa, with export volumes increasing 7.3% in the context of a 6.3% increase in total extra-EU poultry meat exports (1).
This needs to be seen in a context where EU ‘poultry production grew significantly in 2018 driven by reduced chicken breast imports’, increasing by 5% (2). This gave rise to increased volumes of poultry parts, the principal market for which lies in sub-Saharan Africa.
There was a particularly noteworthy expansion of EU poultry meat exports to the Angolan, DRC, Zambian and Mozambican markets. The continuation of growth in EU poultry exports to Ghana is also noteworthy, with EU poultry meat exports in 2018 being four times higher than in 2010 (1). A resurgence in exports to other coastal markets in West Africa, notably Guinea, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast is also noteworthy, with EU poultry meat exports increasing +29%, +49.4% and +58% respectively. The only region to which EU poultry meat exports did not increase was the Eastern African region.
This trend in increased EU exports of poultry meat to sub-Saharan Africa has continued into 2019, with in the first 2 months of 2019 total extra-EU poultry meat exports increasing 20.7%, but exports to the main sub-Sharan African markets increasing far more significantly. Exports to South Africa in the first 2 months of 2019 grew some 140%, with this reflecting either a relaxation of South African SPS import restrictions or more likely a more effectively organized circumvention of country specific SPS import restrictions. Meanwhile EU exports to the DRC, Ghana and Guinea increased respectively 43%, 38% and 34%, with there even being resurgence in EU poultry meat exports to Benin after 3 years on continuous decline (3).
EU Exports to Leading Sub-Saharan African Countries Jan-Feb 2019 Compared to Jan-Feb 2019 (Tonnes)
| Jan-Feb 2019 | Change Jan-Feb 2018 | % total Jan-Feb 2019 EU exports | |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 91,624 | ||
| Ghana | 32,494 | +38% | 10.3% |
| South Africa | 23,174 | +140% | 7.4% |
| Benin | 19,328 | +6% | 6.1% |
| DRC | 10,950 | +43% | 3.5% |
| Guinea | 5,678 | +34% | 1.8% |
| Total Extra EU | 315,000 |
Source: EC, ‘Exports of poultry meat to selected destinations’, EU Market Situation for Poultry, Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets’, 17 April 2019
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/cdd4ea97-73c6-4dce-9b01-ec4fdf4027f9/24.08.2017-Poultry.pptfinal.pdf
However, the EC’s latest short term projections for EU agricultural markets suggest ‘growth will moderate in 2019 as imports begin to recover and prices adjust’, with EU production growth continuing but increasing by only 2% in 2019 (2). It is therefore unclear to what extent the current high growth in EU exports to sub-Saharan African markets will continue over the course of 2019.
| Comment and Analysis The pattern of expansion of EU poultry meat exports is significant for African poultry industries. For example the expansion of EU poultry meat exports to the Angolan, DRC, Zambian and Mozambican markets is potentially of considerable interest to the South African poultry industry which is increasingly looking for African export markets, given the pressure on domestic markets arising from high levels of imports. The markets in southern Angola and Zambia could even be of interest to the newly established Namibian poultry industry for certain poultry pieces.The ongoing huge expansion of EU poultry meat exports to Ghana, which have increased four-fold since 2010 would also appear to represent the final nail in the coffin of the poultry production in Ghana. This Ghanaian experience may even begin to cause concern in Cameroon, where an almost doubling of EU exports occurred in 2018, though be it from a low export base.However a key factor in whether the renewed growth in EU poultry meat exports to Sub-Saharan Africa into 2019 will continue throughout 2019 is likely to be the outcome of the ongoing Brexit impasse.A ‘no-deal’ Brexit is likely to severely impact on EU27/UK trade in poultry meat, which would result in significant trade displacement effects given the over 1 million tonnes in mutual trade in poultry meat which currently takes place between the EU27 and the UK (see companion epamonitoring.net article ‘ACP Livestock Sectors and the Collapse of Cross Party Talks to Resolve the Brexit Impasse’, 20 May 2019). This is likely to see an unprecedented surge in exports of poultry meat to sub-Saharan African markets.This is likely to be particularly significant in future trade with the UK where the volume of poultry parts displaced from EU27 markets under a ‘no-deal’ outcome to the current Brexit process would leave UK exporters (mostly in Northern Ireland) looking for alternative markets for a volume equivalent to more than double (+136%) current UK extra-EU exports.This needs to be seen in a context where ACP markets currently take almost 37 of every 100 tonnes of UK extra-EU poultry meat exports.Against this background the safeguard provisions included in ‘rolled over’ UK Continuity Agreements could take on particular significance. This would appear to be an area to which ACP government negotiators should pay particular attention. This could, for example, include the elaboration of the ‘rolled over’ provisions dealing with ‘Duties, taxes and other fees and charges on exports’ through the inclusion of a paragraph stipulating: · ‘In defining exceptional circumstances special attention will be paid to any trade diversion effects arising as a result of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU which could generate import surges which adversely impact on local producers’. Similarly the provisions ‘rolled over’ relating to ‘Prohibition of quantitative restrictions’ could usefully include additional provisions stipulating: · ‘Special exceptions to this commitment will be made in the event of any trade diversion effects arising as a result of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU which could generate import surges which adversely impact on local producers’. |
Sources:
(1) EC Market Access Data Base
https://madb.europa.eu/madb/statistical_form.htm
(2) EC, ‘Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2018 and 2019’, Spring 2019
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/short-term-outlook-spring-2019_en.pdf
(3) EC, ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry, Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets’, 17 April 2019
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/cdd4ea97-73c6-4dce-9b01-ec4fdf4027f9/24.08.2017-Poultry.pptfinal.pdf