Summary
In the face of AI related import restrictions for other major destinations for EU frozen chicken and general poultry meat exports, EU exports to Ghana and other major West African markets have grown strongly. West Africa has now become a key market for exports of frozen chicken meat, particularly when difficulties are faced on other markets. This raises critical issues over the role of poultry sector trade policy in West Africa in supporting efforts to expand domestic poultry production, as part of wider poultry sector development initiatives.
In 2021 the EU27 poultry sector has faced the combined effects of avian influenza outbreaks, high feed costs and reduced food service demand resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the European Commission (EC) the poultry industry has reacted to this situation by ‘implementing a disciplined production strategy.’ This resulted in a 4.7% decline in production year on year in the first half of 2021. Production fell in all major EU poultry producing countries (-17% in the Netherlands, -8.6% in Poland, -5.7% in Spain, -4.9% in France, and -3.4% in Germany) (1).
From January to June, this saw the EU recording a 15% decline in EU poultry meat exports. This decline includes the fall in EU exports to the UK (which is now an extra-EU destination), which fell 18% in the first 6 months of 2021 compared to the corresponding period in 2020. This needs to be seen in a context where the UK accounted for 32% of extra-EU27 poultry meat exports in 2020 down from 36.8% in 2019) (1).
EU27 Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected destinations (including UK)
| Jan-June 2021 | Compared to | 2020 Jan-Dec | 2019 Jan-Dec | ||||
| Country | Tons | % extra-EU | Jan-June 2020 | Tons | % extra-EU | Tons | % extra-EU |
| Extra-EU | 1,036,634 | -6% | 2,515,894 | 2,688,714 | |||
| Ghana | 119,714 | 11.54% | +26% | 213,917 | 8.50% | 184,033 | 6.84% |
| Benin | 34,732 | 3.35% | +25% | 61,482 | 2.44% | 68,909 | 2.56% |
| Guinea | 17,068 | 1.65% | +21% | 28,576 | 1.14% | 26,674 | 0.99% |
| South Africa | 20,365 | 1.96% | -53% | 89,112 | 3.54% | 129,827 | 4.83% |
| Gabon | 20,363 | 1.96% | +19% | 38,192 | 1.52% | 33,459 | 1.24% |
| Congo (DRC) | 52,017 | 5.02% | +3% | 101,400 | 4.03% | 78,445 | 2.92% |
| UK | 319,092 | 30.78% | -18% | 806,618 | 32.06% | 989,954 | 36.82% |
| Philippines | 42,407 | 4.09% | -60% | 195,821 | 7.78% | 215,640 | 8.02% |
Sources: EC, ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry,’ Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets, 23 September 2021
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/cdd4ea97-73c6-4dce-9b01-ec4fdf4027f9/24.08.2017-Poultry.pptfinal.pdf
Thus, while exports to the Philippines and South Africa showed even higher rates of decline than in EU27 exports to the UK (60% and 53% respectively), this needs to be seen in a context where these destinations accounted for only 7.8% and 3.54% of extra-EU27 poultry exports in 2020 (2).
In distinct contrast, three West African destinations showed a major expansion in poultry meat imports from the EU in the first six months of 2021. Ghanaian imports from the EU27 were 26% higher the first six month of 2021 compared to January to June 2020, while Beninese and Guinean imports were respectively 25% and 21% higher (2).
By far the most important of these was Ghana, which in the first six months of 2021 took 12% of total EU27 extra-EU poultry meat exports. This was up from an 8.5% share in 2020. Benin and Guinea in contrast took 3.35% and 1.65% respectively in the first six months of 2021 (up from 2.44% and 1.14% for the whole of 2020 (1).
The most significant product category in EU27 poultry meat exports to Ghana was frozen chicken meat, which accounted for 90.6% of the total volume of EU27 exports of poultry meat to Ghana. In the sub-category of frozen chicken meat exports, the Ghanaian market was even more important, taking almost 1 in every 5 tonnes of extra EU27 frozen chicken meat exports (19.9%) in the first six months of 2021. This was up from a 13.6% share of EU27 frozen chicken meat exports in 2020 and 13% in 2019. In the first 6 months of 2015 the Ghanaian market had accounted for only 5.9% of extra-EU frozen chicken meat exports. Between the first six months of 2015 and the first six months of 2021 EU frozen chicken meat exports to Ghana increased 256% (from 30,301 to 107,933 tonnes) (3).
EU Frozen Chicken Meat exports to Ghana and Total EU27 Frozen Chicken Meat Exports Jan to August 2021 (tonnes)
| Jan-Aug 2021 | Jan | Feb | March | April | May | June | July | August | |
| Ghana | 143,778 | 19,765 | 22,124 | 20,233 | 15,880 | 14,797 | 15,142 | 18,301 | 17,544 |
| Total EU27 | 729,721 | 97,006 | 85,723 | 102,376 | 82,109 | 84,246 | 90,577 | 100,444 | 87,248 |
| % Ghana | 19.7% | 20.4% | 25.8% | 19.8% | 19.3% | 17.6% | 16.7% | 18.2% | 20.1% |
Source: EC Poultry Trade Data,
https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DashboardPoultry/PoultryTrade.html
The trend in EU poultry meat exports to Ghana plays a leading role in a more general expansion of EU exports of frozen poultry meat to West Africa (consisting largely of frozen chicken parts). Between 2015 and 2020 EU27 exports to West Africa increased 41.6% (from 208,47 tonnes to 309,358 tonnes) (3). In the first six months of 2021 EU27 frozen chicken exports to West Africa increased a further 24.8%. This took West Africa’s share of extra-EU27 exports to almost 1 in 3 of every tonne of frozen chicken meat exported beyond the EU27’s borders (32.6%).
This contrasts with a decline of 15.3% in EU27 exports of frozen chicken meat in the first six months of 2021 of 15.3% (compared to the same period in 2020). This slump was a result of trade restrictions introduced by the EU’s leading poultry sector export trade partners in response to Avian Influenza outbreaks in the EU.
| Comment and Analysis West Africa can be seen as an outlier in its handling of poultry meat imports from the EU in the face of regular Avian Influenza outbreaks in the EU. Commonly, no precautionary phytosanitary import restrictions are introduced in response to AI outbreaks in the EU. As a consequence, export volumes to West Africa tend to surge when other markets for frozen chicken exports are closed off. West Africa has now become a key market for exports of frozen chicken meat when difficulties are faced on domestic markets (Covid-19 linked suppression of demand), near neighbour markets (the UK, in the face of Brexit complications on poultry meat exports), and major third country markets (resulting from AI import restrictions).In terms of the scale of EU exports to West Africa this situation is only likely to get worse in the second half of 2021. While EU27 poultry production was down 4.7% in the first half of 2021, a production recovery in the second half of the year is projected, such that for the year as a whole EU27 poultry production will be down only 0.9% compared to 2020 (1). This is likely to fuel a continued expansion of EU frozen chicken meat exports to West Africa throughout 2021. Indeed, the collapse in EU27 exports of poultry products to the UK (mainly fresh and chilled poultry meat), which began to accelerate in July 2021, is likely to further fuel the expansion of EU27 frozen poultry meat exports. EU exporters are likely to expand exports to those markets to which they enjoy easiest access. Given ongoing concerns over AI outbreaks in Europe across traditional alternative third country markets, this is likely to see a growing focus on West African markets. This is likely despite the projected overall decline in EU poultry meat exports of 5% in 2021 compared to 2020. The contrasting experience of Ghana and West African countries compared to other African countries and regions EU poultry meat exporters traditionally targeted (South Africa and Southern Africa) raises important issues in regard to the role of poultry sector trade policy in supporting and expansion of domestic production (see companion epamonitoring.net article ‘Decline in EU Poultry Meat Exports to South Africa Provides Space for Renewal of the Domestic Poultry Sector’, 11 November 2021). The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability of import supply chains to disruption. In this context, elsewhere, governments have taken initiatives to accelerate efforts to foster local poultry sector development through the active use of trade policy tools, as part of an integrated poultry sector development programmes. These comprehensive programmes look to supporting direct investment in the expansion of poultry production, enhancing the efficiency and price competitiveness of feed and other input supply chains, and improving access to markets for domestic producers, through both investments in infrastructure and the introduction of measures to strengthen the functioning of local supply chains. The best of these initiatives has been based on extensive stakeholder dialogues, the judicious phasing in of sector wide investments and comprehensive trade policy initiatives (addressing imports from all sources), with production development support and trade policy implementation being carefully sequenced, to ensure ongoing availability of low-priced chicken meat in response to rapidly growing consumer demand. Where such poultry sector development initiatives are underway this has often involved false starts and an extensive learning process. However, the disruptions of import supply chains generated by AI outbreaks and Covid-19 freight cost increases, could potentially be turned into market advantages for domestic poultry producers, if appropriate comprehensive support programmes are set in place. |
Sources
(1) EC, ‘EU Market Situation for Poultry,’ Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets, 23 September 2021
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/cdd4ea97-73c6-4dce-9b01-ec4fdf4027f9/24.08.2017-Poultry.pptfinal.pdf
(2) EC, ‘Short Term Outlook: Meat Products,’ Autumn 2021
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/short-term-outlook-autumn-2021-chapter-meat_en.pdf
(3) EC Poultry Trade Data
https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DashboardPoultry/PoultryTrade.html