Summary
Brexit could potentially impact on a large volume of UK trade, with trade in agricultural products likely to be most severely affected. This will include products where some ACP exporters have significant export interests. However UK exporters will also be adversely affected. Analysis of the effects of Brexit related trade disruptions could potentially assist the ACP in identifying useful allies in lobbying the UK government for pro-active initiative to minimize trade disruption. Read more “Lapsing of EU trade agreements will carry costs for both UK importers and exporters”
Category: Topics
The challenges of Brexit: The illustrative case of Belize
Summary
Belize has one of the highest levels of dependence on the UK market in its trade with the EU of any ACP country (73%). Belize’s agricultural exports would all face significant MFN duties if current duty free-quota free (DFQF) access were lost and no alternative equivalent regime were set in place. What is more, Belize’s agricultural exports to the UK are highly vulnerable to preference erosion, given currently expressed UK trade and agricultural policy orientations for a post- Brexit Britain. Only in the citrus sector could Brexit bring benefits, but only if unnecessary SPS controls were abandoned and current full cost recovery initiatives for SPS inspections are reviewed. Read more “The challenges of Brexit: The illustrative case of Belize”
After Brexit: How to secure ACP interests
Summary
The ACP Secretary General has taken up suggestions for a 2 stage approach to future ACP-UK trade relations, with the transitional unilateral extension of current market access conditions being seen as essential in avoiding ‘a disruptive cliff edge’ in ACP exports to the UK. The inaugural meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers offers an opportunity to secure UK commitments in this regard.
ACP trade concerns around Brexit will need to be addressed independently of the state of UK-EU27 negotiations. However there are both UK and EU27 dimensions to the trade effects of Brexit on ACP food and agriculture sectors which will need to be addressed. This includes joint ACP-EU28 initiatives to avert any WTO challenge to necessary transitional market access arrangements.
The creation of a joint ACP-DIT working group could offer a vehicle for ensuring ACP interests are not lost sight of in the face of the multitude of pressing trade priorities facing the UK authorities. Read more “After Brexit: How to secure ACP interests”
Rising EBA rice exports to EU could squeeze ACP rice exports out of EU market
Summary
While EU rice producers fear the impact of increased imports from LDCs, to date it is other third country suppliers which have been worst affected. Competition amongst third country suppliers will intensify in the coming period, with the effects on ACP countries potentially being compounded by the UK’s departure from the EU. This will depend on the trade regime set in place by the UK from day 1 of BREXIT. Read more “Rising EBA rice exports to EU could squeeze ACP rice exports out of EU market”
South Africa looking for predictable EPA based trade arrangement to boost trade with UK
Summary
In discussions between the South African Minister of Trade and UK International Trade Secretary the possibility of building on the existing EPAs in developing future bilateral trade relations with the UK was raised. This is seen by the South African Minister as providing a simple mechanisms for avoiding any unintended adverse fallout from the Brexit process. A key question to be determined is the ‘when and how’ related to the launching of such a re-fitting process. This would appear to be an important issue for clarification at the forthcoming inaugural meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers. Read more “South Africa looking for predictable EPA based trade arrangement to boost trade with UK”
Brexit, the Commonwealth and Opportunities for Addressing ACP Countries Trade Concerns
Summary
The scheduled inaugural meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers from 9-10 March 2017 would appear to provide an ideal opportunity for a coordinated push by Commonwealth ACP governments for an early and concrete commitment from the UK government to ensuring no disruption of pre-existing access to the UK market, as a result of the UK’s formal departure from the EU. This is particularly important for those Commonwealth ACP countries which have a higher than average dependence on the UK market in their trade with the EU, either overall or at the sector specific level.
Ignoring this opportunity and allowing existing arrangements for ACP access to the UK market to be interrupted, would provide a far from ideal basis for the UK to seek ‘more favourable asymmetric liberalisation on the ACP side’. Read more “Brexit, the Commonwealth and Opportunities for Addressing ACP Countries Trade Concerns”
ACP need to stay alert to possible delays in UK-EU trade deal
Summary
Relying on the UK becoming an associated member of existing EPA arrangements would appear unwise, since extended delays in formulating a new post BREXIT UK-EU27 trade framework would make this option very difficult. While a range of options are being advanced for how the interests of developing countries can be accommodated in the BREXIT process, this will require active political engagement by ACP governments with UK opinion leaders and policy makers if arrangements favourable to the interests of ACP countries are to be set in place. Read more “ACP need to stay alert to possible delays in UK-EU trade deal”
Implications of the EC orientation for Post Cotonou negotiations for ACP agro-food sectors
Summary
The EC consensus on development document recognizes the role of agricultures in eradicating poverty and the importance of smallholder farmers within agriculture in developing countries. It commits the EU to developing value chains which benefit the poor. The EC staff working document in contrast clearly articulates EU security, migration and economic preoccupations in redefining the EU’s relationship with ACP countries. The EC communication on a renewed EU-ACP partnership for its part recognizes the need for responsible investment in agro-food sector development in Africa. Read more “Implications of the EC orientation for Post Cotonou negotiations for ACP agro-food sectors”
Sugar market uncertainties for ACP suppliers will be heightened by BREXIT
Summary
The EU sugar market is likely to face increased volatility in the coming years. ACP sugar exporters need strategies to manage this volatility. This situation will be compounded by BREXIT, with 3 ACP exporters (Guyana, Belize and Fiji) facing particularly severe adjustment challenges. Strengthening the functioning of ACP-EU sugar supply chains to prevent abuse of dominant commercial positions within individual supply chains will be essential if ACP sugar farmers are to be protected. Read more “Sugar market uncertainties for ACP suppliers will be heightened by BREXIT”
Planned hard BREXIT raises stakes for ACP
Summary
While somewhat contradictory, the UK’s 12 point ‘Plan for Britain’ appears to suggest the UK intends to leave the single market and the EU customs union, so as to be able to pursue its own bilateral trade agreements with faster growing economies outside the EU. Within this approach little consideration is being given to the consequences of UK policy choices for developing countries within the ACP Group and beyond. The UK’s departure approach will make it more difficult for the UK to become an associate signatory to the existing EPA agreements and increases the urgency of ACP governments establishing with the UK authorities a mechanisms to avoid ‘a disruptive cliff edge’ in ACP access to the UK market. It would also appear to increase the urgency of ACP governments establishing dialogues with the UK and EU authorities on how to address the adjustment challenges which will arise from the erosion of the value of ACP preferences as a result of Brexit. Read more “Planned hard BREXIT raises stakes for ACP”