Summary
The EC has issued a dedicated communication on Brexit preparedness urging all concerned stakeholders to ‘take the necessary preparedness actions and to take them now’. The EC has also published 68 notifications dealing with specific areas of impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. However the EC has provided no clarifications to its developing country partners on the consequences Brexit will carry for bother their trade with the UK and the EU27. The issues faced in this context range from the impact on the functioning of triangular supply chains, through the rules of origin applied to ACP inputs used in goods packaged and further processed in the UK for onward sale in an EU27 member state to the future of the EU27s bilaterally negotiated TRQ obligations in product areas where the ACP have major export interests (e.g. bananas and sugar). Read more “EC Sets Out Framework for Preparations for a ‘Hard’ Brexit’”
Category: Topics
Getting to Grips with the Import Controls Required If the UK Is Treated As Just Another 3rd Country
Summary
If the UK leaves the EU without alternative trade arrangements in place which deal comprehensively with both tariff and non-tariff issues the EU will have no choice but to treat the UK the same as any other third country. This could make it very difficult to avoid disruption of existing trade flows. If a UK/EU27 free trade area dealing with tariffs were agreed this would still require the negotiation of comprehensive arrangement related to the application of non-tariff measures to EU imports from the UK. What the absence of such an agreement would mean in practice in the area of the future application of EU Food Law has been set out in a February 2018 EC notifications to stakeholders on the implications of the UK leaving the EU. This notification highlights how products of animal origin are likely to be the worst affected agro-food sectors, given the stringent controls on 3rd country imports which the EU applies. This suggests ACP governments will need to look carefully at what trade policy tools they have available to deal with sudden surges in UK and EU27 exports of product of animal origin. Read more “Getting to Grips with the Import Controls Required If the UK Is Treated As Just Another 3rd Country”
Dairy UK and the European Dairy Association (EDA) Launch Joint Position to Minimise Brexit Related Dairy Sector Disruptions
Summary
UK and EU dairy associations are seeking to develop a common approach to avoiding Brexit related disruptions of the existing dairy trade. While the UK governments white paper proposals appear aimed at remaining as close as possible to the single market and customs union, while formally leaving both, it is unclear whether these UK proposals would be consistent with the ‘redlines’ the EU has established in order to maintain the integrity of the single market and the alignment of its trade policy with WTO rules. The potential for ‘terrible market turbulence’ which a poorly manage Brexit process could give rise to in the dairy sector is an issue of concern to ACP countries, since as Dairy UK and the EDA position paper highlights, the last time EU exporters lost access to 3rd country markets (the Russian import embargo) this saw a massive expansion in EU exports of milk powders to Africa. This has served to further undermine efforts to develop local milk-to-dairy supply chains in Africa. Read more “Dairy UK and the European Dairy Association (EDA) Launch Joint Position to Minimise Brexit Related Dairy Sector Disruptions”
Questionable Increase in Future EU Development Financing
Summary
An EC information note suggests the future multi-annual financial framework for EU external action programmes will see a 30% increase in the budget. However factoring in proposals to incorporate the EDF into the future multi-annual financial framework for EU external action programmes, suggests an almost 16% reduction in the real value of total EU external action programme expenditures in the coming period and even a small decline in planned expenditures in nominal terms. However it remains unclear where the burden of the reduced level of the EU’s planned expenditures in real terms will fall. Caribbean and Pacific ACP countries seem most likely to see a decline in grant financed development cooperation expenditures, while certain sub-Saharan African regions could see traditional development assistance activities down-sized as EU external action expenditures are more closely aligned with EU policy priorities along the West Africa-North Africa axis which plays a central role in migration flows. Read more “Questionable Increase in Future EU Development Financing”
Polish Poultry Sector Expansion Suggests Increased Exports to Africa Can be Expected
Summary
Investments in Polish poultry meat production continue, consolidating Poland’s position as the EU’s leading poultry producer (23% of the total). This is fuelling the growth in extra-EU poultry meat exports, with the rapid growth in Polish exports to sub-Saharan Africa in part being masked by the opening up of new export opportunities in neighbouring Ukraine. Given the lower production costs in Poland, this export growth is set to continue, with the prospect of a ‘hard’ Brexit likely to fuel the Polish quest for new markets beyond the EU’s borders. Read more “Polish Poultry Sector Expansion Suggests Increased Exports to Africa Can be Expected”
UK Food Exporters Warn of Dangers of a Rules of Origin Based ‘Hidden Hard Brexit’
Summary
Rules of origin issues arising from the UK’s withdrawal from the EU could potentially give rise to a ‘hidden hard Brexit’ in the agro-food sector, unless specific new arrangements are set in place. Depending in how EU27/UK rules of origin issues are addressed this could reduce the adverse effects of Brexit on existing ACP exports where processing takes place in the UK prior to onward sale. In addition it could create opportunities for ACP governments to reopen rules of origin issues which have inhibited movement up agro-food sector value chains in trade with the EU. However with these rules of origin issues coming to ahead in March 2019 swift and targeted consultations are needed to identify the specific ‘asks’ which ACP governments should be putting forward to advance the interests of value added food product manufacturers. Read more “UK Food Exporters Warn of Dangers of a Rules of Origin Based ‘Hidden Hard Brexit’”
What Could the UK’s July 2018 Negotiating Position Mean for ACP Agro-Food Producers
Summary
This article seeks to review the implications of three main elements of UK’s consensus position on future trade relations with the EU for ACP agro-food sectors. It reviews the impact of the UK’s proposed approach on 4 of the 6 main areas of impact of Brexit, namely: the value of ACP tariff preferences on the UK market; the impact on the functioning of triangular supply chains; the impact on non-tariff measures to be applied to future ACP agro-food exports to the UK and EU27 market; the scope for displacement of current EU27/UK trade onto ACP markets. The current UK proposals as set out in the post Chequers statement do not directly impact on the prospects for the retention of current ACP DFQF access to the UK market or the functioning of EU27 markets in the post Brexit period. Read more “What Could the UK’s July 2018 Negotiating Position Mean for ACP Agro-Food Producers”
FC WAMCO Dairy Development Programme Expands Amidst Continued Import Dependence
Summary
While FCW continues to invest in milk collection centres and farmer training to expand local milk procurement, local milk purchases continue to be dwarfed by the scale of milk powder imports form the EU. Indeed product development such as the introduction of Peak Fat Filled Milk for cholesterol conscious consumers would appear to further lock in the import dependent dairy sector development model which dominates West Africa. It may need to await fundamental changes in the dairy supply and demand equation for any changes in the current import dependent model to be brought about. Read more “FC WAMCO Dairy Development Programme Expands Amidst Continued Import Dependence”
Ageing EU SMP Intervention Stocks See EU SMP Prices Discounted
Summary
EU SMP exports reached record levels despite declining prices in 2017, while the EU is committed to eliminating SMP intervention stocks in an orderly fashion, discounts have to be offered to encourage purchases. This exerts further downward pressures on SMP prices. No sustained recovery in SMP prices is likely as long as EU public intervention stocks overhang the market. Low SMP prices are a particular source of concern for African ACP countries, since imported milk powder prices provide a bench mark for local milk prices, undermining efforts to develop local milk-to-dairy supply chains in African regions targeted by EU exporters. Trends in EU SMP exports highlight just how divorced EU export patterns can be from underling price trends and the extent to which EU policy measures drive trade flows. Whether the profound effects EU policies have on the functioning of milk powder markets can be mitigated in ways which create new opportunities for the structural development of dairy production in ACP countries remains to be seen. Read more “Ageing EU SMP Intervention Stocks See EU SMP Prices Discounted”
EU Council authorises launch of Negotiations on apportionment of WTO TRQs
Summary
The EC proposal for a mandate to negotiate the apportionment of WTO agreed TRQs has been approved by the EU Council. The EC’s approach is based on the October 2017 joint UK/EU letter to WTO members. This approach has already been rejected as unacceptable by leading WTO members. The annex to the EC proposal provides TRQ by TRQ details of how much access to the EU27 market would be reduced post Brexit. This nominally includes a reduction in ACP TRQ access for sugar exports: an arrangement which has been superseded by the granting of full duty free-quota free access under the EU’s EBA scheme and various EPAs. This suggests there may be some shortcomings in the EC’s preparatory work for the launch of these TRQ negotiations with WTO members. This could lead to a lengthy process of negotiations. However the EU Council has reserved the right to unilaterally apportion existing TRQs if no specific agreements can be reached with WTO members by the date of the UK’s full departure from the EU. Read more “EU Council authorises launch of Negotiations on apportionment of WTO TRQs”