Summary
The Kenyan President has announced trade negotiations with the USA will be delayed given the deferment of the implementation of the AfCFTA in the face of Covid-19 disruptions. This raises issues related to the UK governments approach to trade agreements with African countries such as Kenya. While substantive ‘face to face’ negotiations to resolve outstanding technical issues and regional concerns have not been possible since February the UK government continues to insist Continuity Agreements can be concluded by the end of 2020. While this is perfectly possible for an agreement which solely addresses UK concerns and interests, it is not possible for an agreement which addresses African regional complications and issues and concerns arising from the UK’s departure from the EU customs union. Comprehensively addressing these latter concerns is vital to ensuring continuity in African exports to the UK from 1st January 2021. Against this background the UK government should conclude qualified Continuity Agreements by the end of the year to preserve existing duty-free access for exporters from the concerned African countries, but with the implementation of reciprocal obligations being deferred until outstanding technical issues and regional concerns have been addressed. Read more “Deferment AfCFTA Implementation Leads to Sequencing Issues in Kenya US Trade Negotiations”
Category: Topics
Commitment to Phasing in of UK Controls on Goods Entering from the EU Provides a Framework for Addressing ACP Triangular Supply Chains Issues
Summary
On 12th June 2020, the UK has announced there will be no extension of the transition period in UK/EU trade relations. At the same time, the UK announced plans for phasing in of border controls on imports from the EU. This phased approach is aimed at providing time for UK businesses to prepare for changes in border arrangements given the setbacks to preparatory activities generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the underlying border controls challenges facing the UK government pre-dated the Covid-19 pandemic and remain substantial. Against this background ACP exporters using triangular supply chains need to intensify preparation for the implementation of new UK/EU border arrangements, while ACP governments will need to ensure their Continuity Agreements with the UK, fully address the need to ensure ‘continuity’ in the smooth functioning of triangular supply chains. The governments of least developed countries will also need to ensure a mechanism is found to make similar arrangements for the smooth functioning of triangular supply chains used by LDC based exporters. Read more “Commitment to Phasing in of UK Controls on Goods Entering from the EU Provides a Framework for Addressing ACP Triangular Supply Chains Issues”
Growing Cold Store Shortage Generating Further Additional Costs in Serving European Markets
Summary
The Covid-19 surge in demand for cold storage space is generating significant increases in cold storage charges and an absolute shortage of space in Europe. In the case of the UK this situation is being compounded by the growing prospect of a no-deal UK departure from the EU customs union. This will generate yet another cost increase for ACP agri-food exporters of fresh products which require cold storage before delivery to final customers. This suggests ACP exporters of products requiring cold storage need to shorten their supply chains through the establishment of arrangements for direct delivery of goods to final buyers. This would allow these ACP exporters to side-step the commercial costs of the worsening cold storage availability situation in not only the UK but elsewhere in Europe. Smaller ACP exporters may need to explore their options for accessing the ‘Airbnb’ model of cold store provision. Read more “Growing Cold Store Shortage Generating Further Additional Costs in Serving European Markets”
Grim Sugar Market Prospects Will Require Better ACP Marketing to Exploit Available Evolving Opportunities
Summary
The nascent recovery of the EU sugar market which was getting underway in the 2019/20 marketing year has been reversed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The collapse of global sugar prices is making raw cane sugar imports cheaper and EU sugar exports less competitive. While some ACP sugar exporters are increasingly focussed on trade into sugar deficit markets in the EU (region 3), where prices are on average stronger, these average prices mask large differences in contracted prices and between different contracted prices and spot market prices. This makes marketing strategies and contract negotiations critical to the overall revenue position of ACP sugar exporters to the EU market. Other ACP exporters remain dependent on the UK market where profound uncertainties are faced. The future basis for UK/EU trade and the arrangements for the management of the UK’s Autonomous Tariff Quota will be critical to future UK sugar market price developments. With the recessionary effects of Covid-19 likely to profoundly impact on sugar sector consumption and the structure of demand, ACP exporters will need to pay close attention to evolving policy developments and market conditions in the coming 6 months. Read more “Grim Sugar Market Prospects Will Require Better ACP Marketing to Exploit Available Evolving Opportunities”
Signs of Recovery in the EU Floriculture Sector but Air Freight Challenges Overhang East African Cut Flower Exports
Summary
There is an urgent need for a coordinated East Africa-EU air freight corridor recovery initiative. The Dutch government needs to take a lead on this in Europe, given the central role of the Netherlands in the air freighted floriculture and horticulture trade between East Africa and the EU. This is a critical sector in East Africa’s trade with the EU, with the Covid-19 pandemic threatening to undo 20 years of sustained improvements in livelihood opportunities and poverty focussed growth. Such an initiative should include immediate measures involving: waiving competition policy requirements; opening up the EU’s ‘green lane’ National Contact Point Initiative to East African exporters to rapidly address logistical challenges faced both with new and existing air freight services; waiving phytosanitary inspection fee and lowering landing fees for the duration of the pandemic; and financial support measures to expand regionally focussed air freight capacity. Such measures would be wholly consistent with the EC’s Covid-19 recovery plan, which emphasises how ‘in the longer-term, the EU will only successfully recover if our partners around the world also recover’. Read more “Signs of Recovery in the EU Floriculture Sector but Air Freight Challenges Overhang East African Cut Flower Exports”
Ghanaian Exports to the UK and the Outcome of the UK’s MFN Tariff Review
Summary
Despite earlier fears over the potential impact of the UK’s MFN tariff review the proposed future schedule has largely left unaffected MFN tariffs on agri-food products of export interest to Ghana. The principal issues now faced will arise if the UK leaves the EU customs union on 1st January 2021. These issues relate firstly to the how the Government of Ghana can retain duty free-quota free access to the UK market after this date. Secondly, the prospect a no-deal UK exit from the EU customs union seeing the UK radically revise its’ proposed MFN tariff schedule so as to avert high food price inflation during a severe Covid-19 induced economic recession. Read more “Ghanaian Exports to the UK and the Outcome of the UK’s MFN Tariff Review”
Kenyan Exports to the UK and the Outcome of the UK’s MFN tariff Review
Summary
Despite earlier fears over the potential impact of the UK’s MFN tariff review the proposed future schedule has largely left unaffected MFN tariffs on agri-food products of export interest to Kenya. The principal issues now faced relate to the future of Kenya’s duty free-quota free access to the UK market if the UK leaves the EU customs union on 1st January 2021, given the Covid-19 interruption of still incomplete regional trade negotiations; the need to ensure the continued smooth functioning of triangular supply chains through which the UK market is served via initial ports of landing in the Netherlands or Belgium and the future phytosanitary import controls to be applied by the UK, once the UK is no longer bound by the EU’s increasingly strict phytosanitary import regime. Read more “Kenyan Exports to the UK and the Outcome of the UK’s MFN tariff Review”
The Caribbean and the Outcome of the UK MFN Tariff Review
Summary
Despite earlier fears the UK’s proposed future schedule has largely left unaffected MFN tariffs on agri-food products of export interest to Caribbean ACP countries. The principal issues now faced in future agri-food sector exports to the UK arise in the context of a possible ‘no-deal’ departure of the UK from the EU customs union and single market. These include: the need to ensure the continued smooth functioning of triangular supply chains given the regions limited shipping service options; the future evolution of EU sugar prices and the sourcing decisions of Tate & Lyle Sugars; the future basis of access for African banana exporters in the absence of rolled over UK-only ‘Continuity Agreements’ with Ghana, Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire and the Covid-19 related interruption of negotiations; and the future phytosanitary imports controls to be applied to UK citrus imports. Read more “The Caribbean and the Outcome of the UK MFN Tariff Review”
Future UK Only MFN Tariff Schedule Announced
Summary
After much speculation, the MFN tariffs on most agricultural and food products of greatest export intertest to ACP countries have been retained largely unchanged by the UK government. This will bring considerable relief to ACP banana, sugar, canned tuna, and value-added cocoa product exporters, where fears of the adoption of a ‘zero production-zero tariff’ approach had arisen. Across a range of other areas, relatively minor tariff reductions are unlikely to carry serious trade implications for ACP agri-food product exporters. The only area of uncertainty arises from the removal of the EU entry price system currently applied to a range of products and its replacement by simpler ad valorem import duties. It is unclear what the commercial impact of this change will be on individual ACP exporters of specific products. Read more “Future UK Only MFN Tariff Schedule Announced”
East African Dairy Sector Trade War Continues to Simmer
Summary
An ongoing dairy sector trade war in the EAC over accusations of the use of imported milk powders in value added products exported regionally, is seeing non-tariff barriers being used to block the free movement of dairy products within the EAC. The situation in the dairy sector is complex, with the conflict reflecting wider trade tensions. At heart there would appear to be a need to deepen regional economic integration if such trade conflicts are not to periodically flare up. The simmering trade war makes it particularly difficult for the EAC to reach agreement on ‘green lane’ protocols to keep trade moving in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. This could potentially carry serious economic and food security consequences. In addition, regional trade tensions could well be exacerbated by the UK’s final departure from the EU customs union, which in the face of Covid-19 disrupted trade discussions could present the Government of Kenya with some very difficult choices between losing duty free access to the UK market at considerable cost to the Kenyan economy or going it alone with tariff liberalisation commitments to the UK which would impact on the whole of the EAC and exacerbate existing intra-regional trade tensions. The only way out of this bind would be for the UK governments to unilaterally extend the Transitional Protection Mechanism initially proposed for an 18-month period in October 2019. Read more “East African Dairy Sector Trade War Continues to Simmer”