Summary
It is unclear what the implications will be for St Lucian banana exports of Winfresh-UK being placed in administration. While efforts are underway to draw Fyffes into a greater role in the marketing of St. Lucian bananas in the UK, it is unclear whether the inclusion of St. Lucian bananas would add value to Fyffes product portfolio, given the uncertainties surrounding the future of the UK banana market. While in May 2020 the UK proposed to retain in place existing MFN tariffs on banana imports beyond 1st January 2021, the UK food price inflation effects of a no-deal UK departure from the EU customs union could see a further revision of the UK MFN tariff schedule, with a move over to the ‘zero production- zero MFN tariff’ approach long advocated by the global trade liberalisation wing of the Conservative Party. St. Lucian and other ACP Bananas exporters would be highly vulnerable to such a policy shift, with this uncertainty making it extremely difficult to plot a way forward for St. Lucian banana exports as supply contract negotiations for 2021 get underway. Read more “Structural Price Pressures on UK Banana Market See Winfresh-UK Placed into Administration”
Category: Brexit
New UK Trade Advisory Groups Launched
Summary
The functioning of the new UK business focussed trade advisory groups is greatly complicated by the absence of a coherent and integrated UK trade policy, rooted in broader UK policy objectives. The failure to get to grips with the intricate interconnections between duty free/quota free access and non-tariff trade issues can be seen in both the UK/EU negotiations and the shortcoming of the UK’s ‘rolled over’ Continuity Agreements concluded with ACP countries. If these shortcomings are note effectively addressed, then this will undermine a range of existing ACP supply chains which serve UK markets. The absence of a clearly elaborated UK policy framework also means there is a risk that the potential to bring UK business bodies into the process of elaborating a coherent and integrated UK trade policy will degenerate into a lobbying platform for specific corporate interests and the adoption of a ‘shopping list ‘ approach to trade negotiations. Read more “New UK Trade Advisory Groups Launched”
Continued Lack of Progress Sees Mounting Levels of Frustration on the EU Side and Increased Prospects of a No-Deal UK Departure from the EU Customs Union and Single Market
Summary
EC negotiators are showing growing frustration at the lack of progress in EU/UK trade negotiations. The EU is looking for the UK to move beyond initial ‘red lines’, while the UK is looking for recognition of its sovereign right to determine its trade regulatory framework. Analysts suggest current positions risk lead to a ‘no-deal’ outcome by default. The urgency of ACP exporters assessing the real world implications of the UK’s departure from the EU customs union, with or without a deal, cannot be overstated. Similarly, the urgent need for ACP governments to launch a political initiative to ensure the implications for ACP exporters of the pending changes are acknowledged and addressed cannot be over stated. Read more “Continued Lack of Progress Sees Mounting Levels of Frustration on the EU Side and Increased Prospects of a No-Deal UK Departure from the EU Customs Union and Single Market”
Implications for ACP Exporters of Further Reductions of Import Tariffs on Ecuadorian Bananas
Summary
At the beginning of 2020 Ecuador secured the benefits of the tariff reductions included in the EU-Andean Pact FTA. Ecuadorian exporters believe this will further stimulate banana exports to the EU, in a context where Ecuador already accounts for 1 in 4 bananas imported to the EU. It is unclear what the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will be on Ecuador’s banana export trade to the EU. The Ecuadorian experience highlights the importance of the tariffs applied to banana imports on trade flows. In this context two issues arise for African banana exporters, namely: the future MFN tariffs the UK plans to apply to banana imports after it has left the EU customs union and whether the UK will unilaterally roll over existing duty free access for Ghanaian, Cameroonian and Ivorian banana exports, given the Covid-19 interruptions of ongoing negotiations on ‘UK-only’ Continuity Agreements which were intended to replace the EU trade agreement which will lapse once the UK leaves the EU customs union. African banana exporters have actively made their economic development concerns known to the UK government. It remains to be seen just how the UK government will respond to these concerns. Read more “Implications for ACP Exporters of Further Reductions of Import Tariffs on Ecuadorian Bananas”
Dominican Republic and Bananas Dominate ACP Organic Products Exports to the EU28
Summary
ACP countries account for a growing share of EU organic imports, with the Dominican Republic and bananas playing a particularly important role in this trade. In 2019 the entry into force of new EU organic regulations and the UK’s departure from the EU customs union and single market could prove disruptive, unless sensitivity is shown to the potential trade disruptions changes to trade documentation requirements can cause. In the Brexit context an extended transitional period during which the EU and UK will continue to recognize certifications issued by organic certification bodies in each other territories would appear essential. Alternatively, ACP exporters will need to seek dual certification from EU27 and UK registered bodies, with this involving additional costs and considerable uncertainty given Covid-19 related movement and social distancing restrictions. Read more “Dominican Republic and Bananas Dominate ACP Organic Products Exports to the EU28”
Preparing for the Impact of a New EU/UK Border on ACP Exports to the EU
Summary
This article seeks to highlight the main areas of impact of the new EU/UK border arrangements as these are likely to affect ACP exporters serving EU27 markets. While this will mainly impact ACP exporters using triangular supply chains, it will also have some effects on direct exports to the EU, mainly via it effects on trade administration documentation requirements, the need for valid authorisations and certifications, customs and taxation rules and the rules of origin requirements under preferential trade agreements. While ACP exporters themselves need to make their own assessments of the impact of the UK’s full withdrawal from the EU and set in process appropriate preparations for the changes which will occur, there is some scope for policy interventions to try and mitigate the adverse impact on ACP supply chains. However, this will require proactive engagement with the EU by the governments of the country’s most seriously impacted by the impending changes. To date there is no evidence the concerned government have yet appreciated the urgency of such policy initiatives. This could leave ACP exporters having to cope alone with further trade disruptions. This is likely to be most severely felt by those ACP exporting countries already suffering most severely because of Covid-19 related trade disruptions. Read more “Preparing for the Impact of a New EU/UK Border on ACP Exports to the EU”
Nestlé Move Away from Cane Sugar Compounds Wider Sugar Sector Demand Trends
Summary
Nestle’s decision to switch to beet sugar will have a greater impact on the UK market for ACP cane sugar than the companies sugar reduction efforts since 2015. The decision of Nestle will compound the wider structural trend in the UK and elsewhere in Europe towards a reduction of human consumption of ‘hidden’ sugars. While to date, as part of its latest anti-obesity campaign launched in the face of the devastating link uncovered between obesity and serious Covid-19 infections and deaths, the UK government has resisted pressured to extent the SDIL to high sugar content food products, pressure for regulatory measures to reduce the use of ‘hidden’ sugar in a wide range of food products is only likely to increase in the coming years. The long-term structural trends towards reduced consumption of sugar and greater local sourcing, is something ACP cane sugar exporters will need to adjust to, as they look towards their future marketing options. The ability of different ACP exporters to adjust to these new market realities varies greatly and will need to be assessed country by countries and even company by company. Read more “Nestlé Move Away from Cane Sugar Compounds Wider Sugar Sector Demand Trends”
Will ACP Exports to the UK Be Impacted by the New UK-EU Border Control Requirements?
Summary
While the UK government asserts the introduction of UK border controls on goods entering from the EU will leave trade with ACP countries and the rest of the world unaffected, this is not entirely the case. ACP goods entering the UK market via EU27 member states along so-called triangular supply chains, will be most severely affected, though be it in a wide variety of ways. This will depend on:
- The nature of product and whether any significant alteration to the product takes place in the territory of the EU on route to the UK, specifically whether the consignment is simply broken down or undergoes repackaging or some simple level of processing prior to onward trade to the UK.
- Whether the product remains formally ‘in transit’ under the provisions of the CTC.
- Whether the good enters the customs territory of the EU prior to onward movement to the UK.
- The basis on which the UK finally leaves the EU customs union and single market.
- The efficiency of UK border control services and border clearance infrastructure in the face of the basis on which the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market.
All these factors will influence the impact the UK’s departure from the EU customs union has on ACP exports to the UK. In addition even direct ACP exports to the UK will be affected by the new UK/EU border requirements, in terms of the trade documentation required to enter the UK customs area and the overall efficiency of UK border control services, in the face of the new demands a UK/EU border will generate. ACP exporters will need to be alert to and prepare for all these potential impacts, with the level of adjustment required varying considerably across products. Read more “Will ACP Exports to the UK Be Impacted by the New UK-EU Border Control Requirements?”
EU Sugar Market Still Attractive but Brexit Related Complications Likely in 2021
Summary
The difficult global sugar market situation and rapid transition from a large projected deficit to a significant surplus is likely to put pressure on EU sugar prices, which have to date held up well. There are concerns the UK duty free sugar quota of 260,000 tonnes could see EU/UK sugar trade restricted, with this driving EU27 sugar exports off the UK market and intensifying competition on the EU market. This could also complicate the onward trade in ACP sugar and products containing ACP sugar between the UK and the EU. Disturbances on European sugar markets look likely in 2021, including for ACP Fairtrade sugar, where exporters may need to review their routes to market and refining partners. Alternatively, special onward trade arrangements may need to be negotiated as part of wider efforts to avert disruption of ACP triangular supply chains. This can be seen as an urgent policy priority. Meanwhile ACP sugar exporting companies will need to explore their sugar marketing options for 2021, in the light of a variety of scenarios for the UK’s departure from the EU customs union and single market. Read more “EU Sugar Market Still Attractive but Brexit Related Complications Likely in 2021”
UK International Trade Secretary Raises Concerns Over UK Border Control on Imports From EU
Summary
The UK Trade Secretary has expressed concerns over plans for a phased implementation of UK border controls on imports from the EU27 regarding their WTO compatibility, the impact on smuggling operations and the credibility of UK trade policy. Concerns have also been raised over the practicality of implementing ‘light touch’ border control systems between the mainland UK and Northern Ireland. Problems in designing and implementing ‘light touch’ border control systems and concerns over smuggling could see more rigorous controls applied to ACP goods entering the UK market via EU27 member states. Unless special arrangements are set in place to facilitate the continued smooth functioning of ACP triangular supply chains, the functioning of important ACP export sectors could be seriously undermined (e.g. short shelf life horticulture products and cut flowers, value added cocoa products and even fisheries products). Read more “UK International Trade Secretary Raises Concerns Over UK Border Control on Imports From EU”