Summary
Tate & Lyle Sugars continues to put pressure on the UK government to use Brexit to level the playing field between beet processors and cane sugar refiners, by removing import duties on raw cane sugar. The adoption of such a UK sugar trade policy would carry serious consequences for ACP sugar exporters to the UK market, undermining their competitive position as suppliers to the UK market and driving many out of the UK market. Trilateral customs cooperation arrangements could however be put in place, on a transitional basis, to minimise disruption of current supply chains which serve EU27 markets through the UK, not only in the sugar sector but beyond. Read more “What are the implications for ACP sugar producers of Tate & Lyle Sugars expectations on UK sugar sector policy post-Brexit?”
Category: Brexit
What are the implications for the ACP of the UK’s formal application to leave the EU and the EU27s initial response?
Summary
The European Council has indicated it expects the UK to honour its international commitments entered into while the UK was part of the EU. However, it is unclear whether this also applies to the long standing preferential access enjoyed by ACP countries to the UK market under EU agreements dating back 42 years. The UK favours ‘grandfathering’ reciprocal preferences from day 1 of BREXIT, but this is likely to face challenges from WTO members.
The EU27s openness to ‘transitional arrangements’ could help ACP governments in lobbying for temporary arrangements which avoid any loss of ACP preferences on the UK market from 30 March 2019. It also offers scope for dialogue on avoiding disruption of ACP agro-food sector supply chains operating through the UK into EU27 markets (and visa-a-versa).
The agro-food sector is likely to be a particularly difficult area of UK/EU27 negotiations, with implications for ACP exporters which may need to be addressed both bilaterally (between the ACP and UK and between the ACP and EU27) and on a trilateral basis (ACP/UK/EU27). Read more “What are the implications for the ACP of the UK’s formal application to leave the EU and the EU27s initial response?”
Capacity constraints and complexities of ‘grandfathering’ highlighted by Parliament Report
Summary
There is a lack clarity on the legal possibilities for ‘grandfathering’ existing reciprocal preferential trade arrangements into bilateral deals with the UK. There are also serious human resource capacity constraints on the UK governments ability to simultaneously negotiate more than a handful of free trade area agreements. This is likely to require a prioritisation of UK FTA negotiations, with smaller ACP countries potentially being left out in the cold. This suggest a need for a coordinated ACP initiative to establish a joint ACP-DIT working group to explore
a) the establishment of transitional unilateral arrangements to prevent any disruption of current ACP access to the UK market and
b) simplified modalities for refitting existing EPAs into bilateral trade agreements with the UK, including the addition of a range of necessary ‘EPA+’ elements. Read more “Capacity constraints and complexities of ‘grandfathering’ highlighted by Parliament Report”
Britain’s continued commitment to Africa post Brexit asserted in context of global drive for free trade
Summary
The UK government sees clear commercial benefits in avoiding a disruptive cliff edge in trade relations with Africa, particularly South Africa, the UK’s gateway to Africa. There has been a surge of UK Ministerial visits to Africa. The UK appears diplomatic open to refitting EU EPAs into bilateral deals with the UK. The UK’s Africa focus risks leaving Caribbean and Pacific ACP countries out in the cold. The ACP group collectively will need to capitalize on the UK’s commercial interest in Africa to ensure existing preferential access to the UK is extended for all ACP countries from day 1 of the UK’s departure from the EU. Existing reciprocal arrangements can subsequently be refitted, with appropriate adjustments. Read more “Britain’s continued commitment to Africa post Brexit asserted in context of global drive for free trade”
The challenges of Brexit: The illustrative case of Namibia
Summary
While Namibia has a very low overall dependence on the UK market in its trade with the EU it has an exceptionally high dependence on the UK market for exports of bovine meat fresh and chilled (0201) and a high dependence for exports of table grapes (08061010). If existing duty free-quota free (DFQF) access to the UK market were lost for these products, then the commercial viability of exports of bovine meat fresh and chilled (0201) would be undermined and the profitability of exports of table grapes (08061010) would be reduced. Any loss of existing duty free-quota free access to the UK market could well require an adjustment to current marketing arrangements for beef exports which are based in the UK. Read more “The challenges of Brexit: The illustrative case of Namibia”
Lapsing of EU trade agreements will carry costs for both UK importers and exporters
Summary
Brexit could potentially impact on a large volume of UK trade, with trade in agricultural products likely to be most severely affected. This will include products where some ACP exporters have significant export interests. However UK exporters will also be adversely affected. Analysis of the effects of Brexit related trade disruptions could potentially assist the ACP in identifying useful allies in lobbying the UK government for pro-active initiative to minimize trade disruption. Read more “Lapsing of EU trade agreements will carry costs for both UK importers and exporters”
The challenges of Brexit: The illustrative case of Belize
Summary
Belize has one of the highest levels of dependence on the UK market in its trade with the EU of any ACP country (73%). Belize’s agricultural exports would all face significant MFN duties if current duty free-quota free (DFQF) access were lost and no alternative equivalent regime were set in place. What is more, Belize’s agricultural exports to the UK are highly vulnerable to preference erosion, given currently expressed UK trade and agricultural policy orientations for a post- Brexit Britain. Only in the citrus sector could Brexit bring benefits, but only if unnecessary SPS controls were abandoned and current full cost recovery initiatives for SPS inspections are reviewed. Read more “The challenges of Brexit: The illustrative case of Belize”
After Brexit: How to secure ACP interests
Summary
The ACP Secretary General has taken up suggestions for a 2 stage approach to future ACP-UK trade relations, with the transitional unilateral extension of current market access conditions being seen as essential in avoiding ‘a disruptive cliff edge’ in ACP exports to the UK. The inaugural meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers offers an opportunity to secure UK commitments in this regard.
ACP trade concerns around Brexit will need to be addressed independently of the state of UK-EU27 negotiations. However there are both UK and EU27 dimensions to the trade effects of Brexit on ACP food and agriculture sectors which will need to be addressed. This includes joint ACP-EU28 initiatives to avert any WTO challenge to necessary transitional market access arrangements.
The creation of a joint ACP-DIT working group could offer a vehicle for ensuring ACP interests are not lost sight of in the face of the multitude of pressing trade priorities facing the UK authorities. Read more “After Brexit: How to secure ACP interests”
Rising EBA rice exports to EU could squeeze ACP rice exports out of EU market
Summary
While EU rice producers fear the impact of increased imports from LDCs, to date it is other third country suppliers which have been worst affected. Competition amongst third country suppliers will intensify in the coming period, with the effects on ACP countries potentially being compounded by the UK’s departure from the EU. This will depend on the trade regime set in place by the UK from day 1 of BREXIT. Read more “Rising EBA rice exports to EU could squeeze ACP rice exports out of EU market”
South Africa looking for predictable EPA based trade arrangement to boost trade with UK
Summary
In discussions between the South African Minister of Trade and UK International Trade Secretary the possibility of building on the existing EPAs in developing future bilateral trade relations with the UK was raised. This is seen by the South African Minister as providing a simple mechanisms for avoiding any unintended adverse fallout from the Brexit process. A key question to be determined is the ‘when and how’ related to the launching of such a re-fitting process. This would appear to be an important issue for clarification at the forthcoming inaugural meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers. Read more “South Africa looking for predictable EPA based trade arrangement to boost trade with UK”