Category: Brexit

EU Council Agrees Guidelines for EC Engagement in the Negotiation of Transitional Arrangements with the UK

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Summary

The EU Council guideline have called for the UK to remain bound by the obligations entered into under trade agreements concluded while a member of the EU throughout the transition period in EU27/UK trade relations. According to remarks by Chief Negotiator Barnier this obligation should be enshrined in the EU/UK Withdrawal Agreement concluded as part of the Article 50 negotiations. However Michel Barnier made it clear that the EU’s commitment in this regard cannot ensure ‘the UK keeps the benefits from these international agreements’, with this depending on the views of the EU’s international trade partners. Read more “EU Council Agrees Guidelines for EC Engagement in the Negotiation of Transitional Arrangements with the UK”

Latest EC Projections Show Growing Export Orientation of EU Poultry Sector

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Summary

The EU poultry sector trade is composed of low value exports and high value imports, with the EU being a net exporter in volume terms but a net importer in value terms. In recent years the export of frozen poultry parts has risen dramatically, with the importance of sub-Saharan African markets to EU exporters growing significantly. In the coming years continued growth in EU production, in the context of a slowing down of consumption growth, will see the importance of export markets to the EU poultry sector grow significantly. This will see greater importance being attached to maximising revenue flows from the export of residual poultry parts. In the context of EPA implementation this could see increased pressure on African governments to remove all forms of trade barriers to EU poultry meat exports. This could then carry serious consequences not only for domestic ACP poultry producers but grain producers who supply feed to the poultry industry. Read more “Latest EC Projections Show Growing Export Orientation of EU Poultry Sector”

Timelines and Pitfalls in the Brexit Process

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Summary
The timeline for the negotiation of both the EU27/UK transitional trade arrangement and the long term framework for future EU27/UK relations are now clearer. What remains unclear is the legal basis for the transitional arrangement under EU and UK law as well as under WTO rules. This could lead to delays and a hiatus in trade relations.

Similar uncertainties arise in relation to transitional UK ‘roll-over’ trade arrangements with groupings of ACP countries engaged in EPA processes with the EU. This is not solely a UK issue but will require the agreement of the EU given the UK will continue to be subject to EU rules and regulations during the transition period. In addition there is the question of the WTO compatibility or acceptability of any transitional UK trade arrangements with groupings of ACP countries. Considerable technical and political challenges will need to be addressed in the coming months if the UK governments’ commitment to ACP countries in regard to ensuring continuity of market access is to be realised in practice. Read more “Timelines and Pitfalls in the Brexit Process”

Dramatic Changes Ahead in the EU Sugar Market

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Summary
The EU sugar sector is entering a new period in its development with the abolition of sugar production quotas: boosting production at the same time as domestic consumption is contracting; lowering average prices; and doubling exports at the same time as imports are halved. This will impact not only on domestic EU markets but also international markets, given the growing global orientation of EU sugar companies and the increased price competitiveness of EU sugar production. This will transform the market context facing ACP sugar exporters as well as the competitive position of ACP producers on regional markets. This will make the continued use of non-tariff trade policy measures a critical policy issue.  This adverse market situation will be compounded by the market effects of Brexit, a policy development not yet factored into EC projections given the uncertainty surrounding the final EU27/UK post Brexit trade arrangements. Read more “Dramatic Changes Ahead in the EU Sugar Market”

South Africa and Ghanaian Poultry Industries to Join Forces Against EU Dumping of Poultry Parts

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Summary
Poultry producers and trade unions in South Africa and Ghana have joined the FairPlay anti-dumping movement in opposing dumping of EU poultry parts on African markets. In West Africa, the EU poultry trade is seen as fuelling migration pressures. Given the scale of EU exports to 38 sub-Saharan African countries, this is a pan-African issue. Pressures on EU exporters to find new markets beyond the EU’s borders will increase in the coming years driven by expanding EU production, accelerating export growth and possible Brexit related trade disruptions. The experience under the EU-South Africa trade agreement suggests action by African governments will need to reach beyond tariff measures, although the use of non-tariff measures will increasingly be constrained by the obligations entered into by African governments under the EPAs concluded with the EU.

More broadly EU trade practices (e.g. the import of live chickens from Ukraine for slaughtering in the EU) suggests a need for stricter traceability requirements and the enforcement of rules or origin requirements under trade agreements with the EU. Read more “South Africa and Ghanaian Poultry Industries to Join Forces Against EU Dumping of Poultry Parts”

Strong growth in banana consumption in the EU based on ‘alarmingly low prices’

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Summary

Strong growth in banana consumption, particularly in Eastern Europe, is supporting a strong increase in banana imports. Unfortunately this is based on alarmingly low prices, which are stripping value from the banana supply chain.  ACP banana exporters bear the brunt of this loss of value. Meanwhile EU banana producers are complaining trade agreement banana safeguard provisions are not being activated, despite imports from some $ banana suppliers increasing beyond safeguard trigger levels. EU banana producers are also concerned over the impact of Brexit on the functioning of EU27 banana markets. This dimension and possible future post-Brexit UK banana trade policies are potentially of concern to ACP banana exporters. Read more “Strong growth in banana consumption in the EU based on ‘alarmingly low prices’”

Namibian Grape Exporters Looking For More Direct Route to EU Market

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Summary

Namibian grape exporters are exploring more cost effective ways of shipping cargo to EU markets. These discussions could usefully factor in the possibility of a ‘hard’ Brexit given the concerns being expressed by the European fruit and vegetable industry and UK freight industry in regard to the severe congestion at channel ports which could arise if no agreement is in place once the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. While government initiatives vis a vis the UK and EU authorities respectively in the context of SACU-UK and SADC-EU dialogues would appear to be essential, in order to retain preferential access to the UK market and avoid disruption of triangular supply chains, it will be up to private sector operators to get to grips with the logistical challenges which a ‘hard’ Brexit would give rise to. Read more “Namibian Grape Exporters Looking For More Direct Route to EU Market”

Brexit concerns despite strong growth in EU banana consumption

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Summary
Strong growth in banana consumption, particularly in Eastern Europe, is supporting a strong  increase in banana imports. Unfortunately this is based on alarmingly low prices, which are stripping value from the banana supply chain.  ACP exporter bear the brunt of this loss of value. Meanwhile EU banana producers are complaining trade agreement banana safeguard provisions are not be activated, despite import increases beyond safeguard trigger levels. EU banana producers are also concerned over the impact of Brexit on the functioning of EU27 banana markets. This dimension, and possible future post-Brexit UK banana trade policies are potentially of concerns to ACP banana exporters. Read more “Brexit concerns despite strong growth in EU banana consumption”

EU Pacific EPA Trade Committee Meet, but with no discussion of the impact of BREXIT

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Summary

While the meeting dealt with market access obligations, this focused on the obligations of  Pacific signatories towards the EU.  There was no discussion of the implications of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on the value of the market access enjoyed by Pacific signatories to the EU under the EPA. With the prospects for a ‘hard BREXIT’ increasing, getting to grips with the implications for the value of EPA market access for Pacific EPA signatories in the absence of the UK would appear to be some important issue for discussion at the next Pacific-EU EPA Trade Committee meeting. Read more “EU Pacific EPA Trade Committee Meet, but with no discussion of the impact of BREXIT”

Tourist Sectors Vital Role in Horticulture Exports to EU

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Summary
A large well established tourism sector can provide significant opportunities for the export of high value low volume horticulture products to the EU.  This is particular where tourist flights service horticulture product distribution hubs. A ‘hard’ Brexit however could bring into question the use of these hubs in serving the UK market. A Freshfel report has outlined the disruption ‘hard’ Brexit could give rise to. Some of these adverse impacts could be ameliorated by administrative cooperation between ACP, EU27 and UK authorities. The ACP Secretariat could usefully launch initiatives in these areas. Read more “Tourist Sectors Vital Role in Horticulture Exports to EU”