Summary
While EU skimmed milk powder stocks are now empty, after five years of overhanging global markets, this respite could be short lived. A no-deal Brexit could so severely disrupt trade in the dairy sector that the EC would return to skimmed milk powder (SMP) intervention buying and support for private storage of SMP. As with the measures adopted in response to the August 2014 Russian import embargo this could give rise to market consequences and trade flows which undermine efforts to promote milk-to-dairy supply chains in ACP countries, particularly in West Africa. Against this background ACP governments will need to ensure they retain the trade policy space necessary to protect local markets from disruptions where initiatives to develop and sustain local milk-to dairy supply chains are underway. Read more “EU Skimmed Milk Powder Stocks Empty, But for How Long?”
Category: Brexit
Can Movement up the Cocoa Value Chain be the Key to Poverty Elimination in the Cocoa Sector?
Summary
Expanding value added cocoa processing in Ghana, alongside the promotion of cocoa farmer ownership in value added processing enterprises, offers real potential for alleviating poverty in the cocoa farming sector and supporting intergenerational renewal of the cocoa farming community. A no deal Brexit could offer substantial opportunities for expanding Ghanaian value added cocoa product exports to the UK if existing duty free-quota free access can be extended, in a context where a no-deal Brexit would see a re-imposition of standard MFN duties on imports of value added cocoa products from EU27 cocoa processing enterprises. Read more “Can Movement up the Cocoa Value Chain be the Key to Poverty Elimination in the Cocoa Sector?”
Misleading Information on Brexit and the Cocoa Sector Misses the Point on Trade Issues Faced
Summary
Misleading information posted on pro-Brexit websites on EU tariffs on African cocoa product exports is distracting attention away from real issues which need to be addressed under a no-deal Brexit scenario if the current strong trend in growth in African exports of value added cocoa products is not to be halted and ever reversed. This includes the importance of the UK government taking urgent steps to avert any disruption of commercial relations arising from the threat of a possible loss of existing duty free access for value added cocoa products to the UK market as a result of the ongoing messy Brexit process. This requires a clear UK government policy commitment to taking whatever steps necessary to ensure continued DFQF access for African value added cocoa product exports. It also requires a clear policy commitment form the UK to: maintaining in place existing MFN tariffs on imports of value added cocoa products; ensuring full pan-African cumulation under the rules of origin applied under any future UK-only trade agreements; the establishment of investment support instruments to facilitate continued movement up the cocoa value chain in Africa to serve the UK. Read more “Misleading Information on Brexit and the Cocoa Sector Misses the Point on Trade Issues Faced”
Ghanaian Banana Exporters Spell Out Implications of Loss of DFQF Access to UK Market
Summary
Failure to ensure a basis for continued DFQF access for Ghanaian banana exports to the UK market could result in the loss of supply agreements as a result of the inclusion of ‘delivered duty paid’ requirements in current UK super market tendering arrangements. The UK government urgently needs to decide upon the basis for providing continued DFQF for Ghanaian exports on an interim basis, while the regional complications around concluding regional West African reciprocal trade agreements, arising from the Nigerian governments reluctance to sign on to such agreement, are resolved. Speedily setting in place the regulatory measures required to ensure continued DFQF access for Ghanaian banana exports can be seen as vital to ensuring successful tenders are made for the current banana supply contracts being placed by UK supermarkets. Read more “Ghanaian Banana Exporters Spell Out Implications of Loss of DFQF Access to UK Market”
UK Parliament Side-lined in Push for 31st October Departure from the EU
Summary
Given the position adopted by Prime Minister Johnson, the consequent lack of progress in EU/UK discussions and UK government’s manoeuvres to side line the parliament, a no-deal Brexit now looks inevitable. Despite government claims of accelerated implementation of Brexit preparations, there is widespread scepticism that a sustained disruption of UK trade flows can be avoided. This carries implications for ACP exporters which now need to be urgently assessed and where possible addressed before the 31st October 20190. This will require action by both ACP exporters, in regard to reviewing how their export supply chains function and their vulnerabilities to a no-deal Brexit, and ACP governments in regard to the initiation of parallel dialogues with the EU and UK authorities on how to minimise disruption of the ACP exports trade with EU28 members under a no-deal outcome to the Brexit process. Read more “UK Parliament Side-lined in Push for 31st October Departure from the EU”
No Sign of Enhanced SACU-UK EPA Despite UK High Commissioner Talking Up Opportunities Brexit Will Create
Summary
The UK High Commissioner to South Africa Nigel Casey has argued Brexit will be good for South Africa since the UK will no longer be tied to EU restrictions. However this will only be the case if the UK takes the necessary steps to remove EU27 driven restrictions on South African exports as an integral part of the conclusion of the initial ‘Continuity Agreement’. This will require modification and extension of the existing EPA provisions where these constitute an obstacle to the full development of South African and wider African export potential in its trade with the UK. This includes addressing issues related to: rules of origin; SPS controls; the removal of quantitative restrictions and, in the short term, trade administration challenges and issues related to the unfair functioning of supply chains. This latter issue needs to be seen in a context where a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is likely to generate substantial additional costs, which under current practices are likely to be passed back down to African exporters. Read more “No Sign of Enhanced SACU-UK EPA Despite UK High Commissioner Talking Up Opportunities Brexit Will Create”
How Will ABF’s Sugar Sector Strategy Affect UK Import Demand for Sugar from Particular ACP Countries?
Summary
Under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit while concluding a ‘Continuity Agreement’ with the UK will be essential to preserving duty free-quota free access for non-least developed ACP sugar exporters, the sourcing decisions of Associated British Foods will have an important bearing on which ACP exporters will benefit from the likely increase in UK sugar prices arising from the imposition of standard MFN duties on sugar imports from EU27 countries. Competitive Southern African sugar producers closely associated with the ABF owned Illovo Group will be best placed to take advantage of UK sugar shortages and higher UK sugar prices. For Caribbean and Pacific sugar exporters the sourcing decisions of Tate & Lyle Sugars will be critical, with an important issue being the nature of the contractual arrangements to be set in place to supply sugar to the UK in the new marketing year starting 31st October 2019. Read more “How Will ABF’s Sugar Sector Strategy Affect UK Import Demand for Sugar from Particular ACP Countries?”
Vet Shortages in UK Meat Sector Could Fuel Export Surges to ACP Countries and Delay Imports under a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit
Summary
The UK meat inspection service depends heavily on veterinarians trained outside the UK. Over 90% of meat sector vets are EU nationals. A ‘no deal’ Brexit could give rise to serious staff shortages in the UK meat inspection service. This could compromise current UK beef and poultry meat exports to EU27 markets. This will be compounded by the application of standard EU 3rd country pre-import certification requirements. This is likely to displace UK meat from EU markets and give rise to export surges to targeted ACP markets. In some ACP countries this could disrupt the functioning of local meat markets and will require appropriate safeguard actions. The shortage of trained vets across the meat sector (including SPS border inspection services) could also adversely impact imports of beef from ACP countries (Namibia and Botswana). This would suggest a need to either intensify current efforts to diversify away from the UK market in their beef trade with the EU or intensify efforts to ‘Brexit-proof’ beef export supply chains from shortages of trained vets and meat inspectors within the UK border protection services. Read more “Vet Shortages in UK Meat Sector Could Fuel Export Surges to ACP Countries and Delay Imports under a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit”
Commissioner Hogan Highlights Agri-food Sector No Deal Brexit Preparations
Summary
In the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit EU market disturbance mitigation measures will consist of a combination of public intervention buying, aid to private storage, support for product withdrawal schemes, targeted financial assistance and support for the development of alternative markets. These instruments can be combined in various ways in light of sectoral needs, with the EC maintaining its experience of previous market disturbance in the 2014-16 period provides a wealth of experience to draw on. The experience of trade diversion to ACP markets following the August 2014 Russian import embargo is a source of concern for ACP producers. This experience suggests a need for a pro-active ACP engagement with the EC on the design and implementation of EU Brexit-related market disturbance mitigation measures, to ensure such measures take into account the interests of ACP producers and traders. Read more “Commissioner Hogan Highlights Agri-food Sector No Deal Brexit Preparations”
New EU Fruit Fly Rules Cause Concern Amongst West African Mango Exporters
Summary
Stricter EU SPS import controls on Tephritidae (fruit flies) infestations due to come into effect on 1st September 2019 could pose challenges for West African mango exports to the EU. This is particularly the case for smaller scale exporters. In this context a ‘no-deal’ Brexit could offer some relief, if the UK could be persuaded to define the required SPS controls with reference solely to the agro-climatic conditions prevailing in the UK rather than across the whole of the EU. This is an issue which concerned ACP exporters should urge their governments to collectively take up with the UK government, with a view to establishing clearly defined structures for dialogue around such a review once the UK is no longer subject to the rules of the EU’s customs union and single market. Read more “New EU Fruit Fly Rules Cause Concern Amongst West African Mango Exporters”