Summary
Both EU sugar beet producers and EU sugar users have expressed concerns a long-term trend towards reduced indigenous EU sugar production is underway. EU sugar users feel this could threaten the competitive position of EU sugar-based food and drink manufacturers. This has led to calls for a ‘radical shift’ in EU sugar trade policy, involving variously: production process ‘mirror clauses’ in trade agreements; the extension of the mandatory EU forestry due diligence regulation to sugar; and the establishment of a traffic light system for regulating sugar imports depending on EU sugar stock levels. However, EC medium term forecasts for the EU sugar market suggest no such sugar market crisis is likely. While current shortages should boost market opportunities for ACP sugar exporters, EU sugar imports are down, in the face of high global sugar prices and massive increases in sea freight charges to Europe. Any structural decline in EU beet production should increase scope for ACP sales to EU beet/raw cane sugar co-refiners. This, however, could complicate the commercial position of full time EU raw cane sugar refiners, while any ‘radical shift’ in EU sugar trade policy could serve to further erode the value of ACP preferential access to EU sugar markets. Overall, ACP sugar exporters face an uncertain future on the EU market, which will require close monitoring and the adoption of targeted marketing strategies by different ACP sugar exporters. Read more “Could EU Sugar Sector Developments Offer Opportunities for ACP Sugar Exporters?”
Category: Brexit
The Halting of the Decline in EU Poultry Production and Open Sub-Sharan African Markets, Fuels Continued Growth in EU Poultry Meat Exports to SSA
Summary
Despite initial setbacks linked to Avian Influenza outbreaks and Covid-19 linked demand effects, EU poultry meat production is projected to increase in 2021, with this growth continuing through to 2031 (though be it at almost half the annual rate of the preceding decade). Despite average EU poultry meat prices being substantially above Brazilian prices, the EU continues to increase exports of frozen and fresh meat and offal from Gallus poultry to sub-Saharan Africa. This increase has continued despite a major slump in EU exports to other non-sub-Saharan African markets. While overall EU poultry meat exports are projected to stabilise up to 2031, the likely further collapse in exports to the UK will increase export pressures on sub-Saharan African markets. If African governments wish to boost local poultry production in response to growing consumer demand and Covid-19 supply chain disruptions, greater use will need to be made of non-tariff measures in regulating imports, including a more precautionary approach in response to AI outbreaks. This could then provide the market space for expanded local production if this forms part of comprehensive poultry sector development strategies. Read more “The Halting of the Decline in EU Poultry Production and Open Sub-Sharan African Markets, Fuels Continued Growth in EU Poultry Meat Exports to SSA”
Ending of Transitional Arrangements for ‘Origin’ Declarations Could Pose Serious Challenges to Certain ACP Triangular Supply Chains
Summary
The lapsing of the transitional arrangement for reporting and verifying rules of origin compliance for goods entering from the EU from 1 January 2022, could see serious disruptions arising along a variety of ACP triangular supply chains. Products potentially affected include chilled and fresh fruit and vegetables, cut flowers, fisheries products, clothing products, value added cocoa products and sugar. From 1 January 2022, ‘originating status’ will need to be proved at the point of entry to the UK, and if this cannot be supplied standard MFN tariffs will be levied. This will require a clear understanding of the rules of origin applicable to the particular goods entering the UK. In addition, cargoes may need to visit inland border control facilities for documentation and physical checks, which could extend delivery times. It is only from 1 January 2022 that the full impact of the new rules of origin/MFN tariff complications along ACP triangular supply chains will be felt, with this making the establishment of an appropriate policy solution to this complication a matter of some urgency. Read more “Ending of Transitional Arrangements for ‘Origin’ Declarations Could Pose Serious Challenges to Certain ACP Triangular Supply Chains”
EU Frozen Chicken Exports to Ghana and Wider West African Region Continue to Rise
Summary
In the face of AI related import restrictions for other major destinations for EU frozen chicken and general poultry meat exports, EU exports to Ghana and other major West African markets have grown strongly. West Africa has now become a key market for exports of frozen chicken meat, particularly when difficulties are faced on other markets. This raises critical issues over the role of poultry sector trade policy in West Africa in supporting efforts to expand domestic poultry production, as part of wider poultry sector development initiatives. Read more “EU Frozen Chicken Exports to Ghana and Wider West African Region Continue to Rise”
EC Proposal for Resolving Northern Ireland Protocol Issues Could Offer Model for Addressing ACP Triangular Supply Chain Concerns
Summary
The EC’s proposals to resolve the problem of the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol try to accommodate the operational concerns of Northern Ireland business leaders. However, the proposals leave unresolved the fundamental political objections the UK government has advanced, on the basis of the objections of Ulster Unionists. While this reduces the prospect of an early EU/UK agreement on the basis of the EC proposals, the technical proposal advanced nevertheless could offer a model for addressing ACP triangular supply chain concerns. This would require an elaboration of the current principles and modalities underpinning the EC proposals, in order to address the specific realities faced along ACP triangular supply chains. This will require political lobbying by the concerns ACP governments and in-depth technical work by the concerns ACP exporters associations. Read more “EC Proposal for Resolving Northern Ireland Protocol Issues Could Offer Model for Addressing ACP Triangular Supply Chain Concerns”
Complex Reality Behind UK Beet Grower Concerns Casts Shadow Over ACP Sugar Exports
Summary
While UK sugar beet growers have expressed concern over their future prospects as a result of the UK governments new sugar trade policy, the most fundamental change is in the UK/EU trade relationship for refined sugar and high sugar content products. This is a result of the new rules of origin requirements under the UK/EU TCA, which exclusively impact on imports of raw cane sugar. These changes could see a major contraction in UK import demand for cane sugar, with Guyana and Fiji likely to be among the most seriously affected of the 9 ACP countries which currently export sugar to the UK. However, the Brexit effects on ACP sugar exports to the UK need to be seen in the context of the dramatic decline in ACP sugar exports to the UK which has taken place since the introduction of EU sugar sector reforms. Read more “Complex Reality Behind UK Beet Grower Concerns Casts Shadow Over ACP Sugar Exports”
West African Banana Producers Call for a Fairer Distribution of Commercial Benefits Along Banana Supply Chains
Summary
Afruibana has sought to raise the importance of addressing the issue of burden sharing along banana supply chains in the context of the dramatic Covid-19 linked freight and input cost escalation now being faced. Afruibana argues addressing burden sharing and equitable pricing issues is essential to support the necessary ‘ecological and energy transition’ in the banana sector. It would appear important to ensure pricing requirements based on Costs of Sustainable Production (COSP) calculations, form an integral part of EU due diligence requirements aimed at getting to grips with climate and livelihood challenges in the developing world. As the Afruibana letter points out this will require everyone in the supply chain to play their part, through international traders, wholesalers, retailers to end consumers. Equally, in the current context, it is important policy choices made in the EU and UK around the Brexit process do not add to costs along already stressed supply chains. Read more “West African Banana Producers Call for a Fairer Distribution of Commercial Benefits Along Banana Supply Chains”
Major UK Player Exits Fresh and Chilled Produce Cross-Border Trade with the EU
Summary
The Marks & Spencer experience of UK-to-EU supply chain disruption hold important lessons for ACP exporters of fresh and chilled products. It highlights three major areas of impact: the vulnerability of fresh and chilled product supply chains to Brexit related disruptions; the importance of phytosanitary import controls to cross border trade in fresh produce; and the critical important of the trade administration burden generated by new post-Brexit requirements for the movement of goods across EU/UK borders, a dimension which can be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back, in terms of the future functioning of triangular supply chains. The Marks & Spencer experience also provides a foretaste of what can be expected along EU-to-UK supply chains from 1 July 2022. Against this background, ACP exporters need to recognise that by being the first to adjust by shifting over to direct exports to the UK, real possibilities could emerge to pick up new business as traditional EU orientated supply chains fall away. Read more “Major UK Player Exits Fresh and Chilled Produce Cross-Border Trade with the EU”
UK Announces a Further Deferment of Full Border Controls on Goods Crossing Over from the EU
Summary
The UK government has announced the deferment of the implementation of a range of controls on goods entering the UK from the EU. While this is nominally in response to Covid-related disruptions, shortcomings in UK government Brexit planning and investment appears equally important. The response of UK businesses to the deferment announcement has been mixed. Concerns have been expressed the problem has simply been ‘kicked down the road’ to avoid a pre-Christmas crisis, while extending the uncertainties over the conditions under which trading operations will take place in the future. There are concerns ongoing uncertainty is having particularly adverse effects on the ‘re-export’ trade along ACP fresh and chilled produce supply chains, with such business operations simply being placed in the ‘too hard’ basket. Against this background there is a need for political initiatives around the issues facing the ACP re-export trade along triangular supply chains, so as to remove uncertainty and restore business confidence in the future of such trading arrangements. Read more “UK Announces a Further Deferment of Full Border Controls on Goods Crossing Over from the EU”
UK HGV Driver Shortage Raises Contractual Issues for ACP Exporters
Summary
The shortage of HGV drivers in the UK is particularly acute and is intensifying. Food and drink supply chains particularly for shirt life products being severely impacted. This raises the issue of burden sharing along ACP export supply chains serving UK markets. Escalating road haulage costs and the value losses resulting from delays need to be taken up and addressed in Incoterms covering ACP exports to the UK, if ACP exporters are not to bear the full burden of escalating costs and value losses. Read more “UK HGV Driver Shortage Raises Contractual Issues for ACP Exporters”