Summary
This article reviews the state of play in the 1st phase of Brexit negotiations on the eve of the deadline for the circulation of draft conclusions for the EU Council meeting scheduled for the 14/15 December 2017. It then seeks to review the possible implications for ACP agro-food sectors of the current state of play. Read more “State of play in the Brexit negotiations implications for the ACP: November 30th 2017”
Category: Regions
Exports of pineapples from Benin to EU to resume, but functioning of supply chain also needs strengthening
Summary
Improvements in the food safety control system in Benin are reopening the EU market to pineapple exporters. This is seen as having the potential to boost both employment and farm incomes. However Ghanaian exporters have identified UTPs along the pineapple supply chains which undermine the commercial viability of pineapple production for export. Against this background there would appear to be little point in investing in stronger food safety and SPS control systems if the issue of UTPs in Africa-EU agro-food sector supply chains are not addressed, since these can undermine the commercial viability of investments made in both expanding production for export and ensuring effective national food safety and SPS control systems. Read more “Exports of pineapples from Benin to EU to resume, but functioning of supply chain also needs strengthening”
Lifting of EU Ban May Provide Little Relief for Ghanaian Vegetable Exporters
Summary
While the EU Delegation in Ghana has heralded the scheduled lifting of the EU ban on imports of specified vegetable from Ghana on 1st January 2018, the trade benefits of this measure could be undermined by the stricter SPS control requirements on False Coddling Moth scheduled to be introduced by the EU from 1st January 2018. This could potentially place a significant additional administrative burden on the competent authority to verify compliance with EU requirements, with any failure to satisfy stricter EU requirements leading to market closure. This is an issue not only for Ghana but 20 other ACP countries engaged in exporting capsicum and pimento to the EU. How the situation evolves in regard to ACP exports of capsicum and pimento in 2018 will provide a concrete example of the kind of impact which stricter EU Plant Health Regulation requirements are likely to have on a range of ACP fresh plant exports to the EU. Read more “Lifting of EU Ban May Provide Little Relief for Ghanaian Vegetable Exporters”
Pre-emptive export restrictions introduced on South African citrus exports to EU
Summary
The Citrus Growers Association has once again introduced voluntary restrictions on citrus exports to the EU in order to avert any threat of formal EU import restrictions. While the South African citrus industry is looking forward to new export opportunities as a result of the Brexit process, these opportunities may well be deferred if a two year transition period is agreed. During this period the UK would need to remain subject to EU rules and regulation. The prospect of such a two year transition period however remains clouded by uncertainty, given the contrasting views of the UK government and EU negotiators on the time it will take to agree a long term EU27-UK trade framework. Read more “Pre-emptive export restrictions introduced on South African citrus exports to EU”
Fears over impact EU SMP stocks on global dairy prices being realized
Summary
There is growing international concern over the impact of accumulated EU skimmed milk powder (SMP) intervention stocks on global milk powder prices. Fears over future EU stock disposal plans, are weighing down global SMP prices. Given the extent to which SMP import prices act as a benchmark for local fresh milk prices, this is an issue of particular concern in ACP countries seeking to develop local milk-to-dairy supply chains. To avert the disruption of efforts in ACP countries to develop local milk-to-dairy supply chains the EU needs to tolerate the continued use of controls on all forms of milk powder imports in those countries where local milk supply development programmes are underway. Read more “Fears over impact EU SMP stocks on global dairy prices being realized”
Dutch onion exports hit further record highs with West African markets playing a critical role
Summary
Dutch onion exports continue to grow with ACP markets, particularly in West Africa being major destination markets. Since 2010 the importance of ACP markets to extra-EU Dutch onion exports has increased from 57.6% to 62.5%, with ACP market increasing in importance whenever difficulties are faced on other third country markets. This suggest any disruption of Dutch-UK onion exports arising from a hard-Brexit could rebound in terms of increased Dutch onion exports to ACP markets. This in turn could adversely impact on local efforts across the ACP to expand local production of onions for national and regional markets Read more “Dutch onion exports hit further record highs with West African markets playing a critical role”
USDA projects lower EU sugar price post production quota abolition
Summary
While USDA maintains EU sugar prices will need to fall if EU projections for growth in sugar exports in the post-quota period are to be met, this neglects the long experience EU sugar companies have of operating within a dual price system. It is possible substantial price premiums could be maintained on the EU sugar market, with this raising the issue of what regulatory initiatives are required to ensure traditional ACP suppliers share in any EU sugar market prices premiums. This would appear to require an extension of the EC’s current regulatory initiative on UTPs to ACP-EU sugar supply chains. This could potentially include regulatory requirements mirroring those which govern relations between domestic EU sugar beet growers and EU sugar beet millers. Read more “USDA projects lower EU sugar price post production quota abolition”
Global Market Context Far From Favourable in the Context of the End of EU Sugar Production Quotas
Summary
Projected global sugar price trends are unlikely to support EU sugar prices in the post quota abolition period. Caribbean and pacific ACP sugar exporters will be potentially the most vulnerable to EU price declines over the 2017/18 season. This situation could then be compounded by the sugar market effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, currently scheduled for 30th March 2019. These effects however may be deferred following Prime Minister May’s acceptance that during the implementation period (transitional period) UK/EU27 trade would need to take place within ‘the existing structure of EU rules and regulations’.
Nevertheless there remain profound policy uncertainties around UK sugar market developments which make any projections of likely developments hazardous. Against this background over the coming years ACP sugar exporters will need to closely monitor developments in the Brexit negotiations and the evolution of UK’s autonomous trade policies as they impact on the sugar sector, in order to identify and exploit any market opportunities which might emerge. Read more “Global Market Context Far From Favourable in the Context of the End of EU Sugar Production Quotas”
Report Paints Grim Picture for Prospects for Integrated Dairy Sector Development in Nigeria
Summary
The PwC report paints a pessimistic picture of the future prospects for the development of Nigerian milk production, given the serious constraints on the development of commercial milk production. There is a need to recognise that if multinational dairy companies are to effectively expand local milk sourcing this will need to be part of a sector wide approach involving all dairy industry players. If not all players are on board the differential use of milk powders in the production of dairy products will create competitive pressures which individual corporate efforts to expand local milk sourcing. This may well require the targeted use of trade policy tools to ensure discipline in support of any sector wide approach. However this could fall foul of EPA provisions prohibiting the use of such tools, should Nigeria sign on to the west Africa-EU EPA. Read more “Report Paints Grim Picture for Prospects for Integrated Dairy Sector Development in Nigeria”
EU poultry meat production rising despite avian flu outbreaks
Summary
Avian flu outbreaks have left overall EU poultry meat production largely unaffected. Although AI related restrictions reduced EU poultry meat export volumes in the first half of 2017, particularly to South Africa the largest single export destination (-63%). Export growth to Gabon, DRC and Ghana while extremely high (+120%;96% and 69% respectively) could not outweigh declines in EU exports to South Africa and Benin. Beyond the current AI crisis in the EU, expanding imports of whole birds from Ukraine, the impact of lower feed costs on EU production and possible Brexit related disruptions of the EU27-UK poultry trade, could all fuel a further expansion of EU exports to Africa. This could continue to inhibit efforts to promote local poultry sector development across Africa. Patterns of Belgium poultry meat exports suggest African governments need to pay closer attention to the origin of poultry meat imports nominally originating in particular EU member states. Read more “EU poultry meat production rising despite avian flu outbreaks”