Summary
While UK sugar beet growers have expressed concern over their future prospects as a result of the UK governments new sugar trade policy, the most fundamental change is in the UK/EU trade relationship for refined sugar and high sugar content products. This is a result of the new rules of origin requirements under the UK/EU TCA, which exclusively impact on imports of raw cane sugar. These changes could see a major contraction in UK import demand for cane sugar, with Guyana and Fiji likely to be among the most seriously affected of the 9 ACP countries which currently export sugar to the UK. However, the Brexit effects on ACP sugar exports to the UK need to be seen in the context of the dramatic decline in ACP sugar exports to the UK which has taken place since the introduction of EU sugar sector reforms. Read more “Complex Reality Behind UK Beet Grower Concerns Casts Shadow Over ACP Sugar Exports”
Category: Regions
West African Banana Producers Call for a Fairer Distribution of Commercial Benefits Along Banana Supply Chains
Summary
Afruibana has sought to raise the importance of addressing the issue of burden sharing along banana supply chains in the context of the dramatic Covid-19 linked freight and input cost escalation now being faced. Afruibana argues addressing burden sharing and equitable pricing issues is essential to support the necessary ‘ecological and energy transition’ in the banana sector. It would appear important to ensure pricing requirements based on Costs of Sustainable Production (COSP) calculations, form an integral part of EU due diligence requirements aimed at getting to grips with climate and livelihood challenges in the developing world. As the Afruibana letter points out this will require everyone in the supply chain to play their part, through international traders, wholesalers, retailers to end consumers. Equally, in the current context, it is important policy choices made in the EU and UK around the Brexit process do not add to costs along already stressed supply chains. Read more “West African Banana Producers Call for a Fairer Distribution of Commercial Benefits Along Banana Supply Chains”
UK Announces a Further Deferment of Full Border Controls on Goods Crossing Over from the EU
Summary
The UK government has announced the deferment of the implementation of a range of controls on goods entering the UK from the EU. While this is nominally in response to Covid-related disruptions, shortcomings in UK government Brexit planning and investment appears equally important. The response of UK businesses to the deferment announcement has been mixed. Concerns have been expressed the problem has simply been ‘kicked down the road’ to avoid a pre-Christmas crisis, while extending the uncertainties over the conditions under which trading operations will take place in the future. There are concerns ongoing uncertainty is having particularly adverse effects on the ‘re-export’ trade along ACP fresh and chilled produce supply chains, with such business operations simply being placed in the ‘too hard’ basket. Against this background there is a need for political initiatives around the issues facing the ACP re-export trade along triangular supply chains, so as to remove uncertainty and restore business confidence in the future of such trading arrangements. Read more “UK Announces a Further Deferment of Full Border Controls on Goods Crossing Over from the EU”
UK HGV Driver Shortage Raises Contractual Issues for ACP Exporters
Summary
The shortage of HGV drivers in the UK is particularly acute and is intensifying. Food and drink supply chains particularly for shirt life products being severely impacted. This raises the issue of burden sharing along ACP export supply chains serving UK markets. Escalating road haulage costs and the value losses resulting from delays need to be taken up and addressed in Incoterms covering ACP exports to the UK, if ACP exporters are not to bear the full burden of escalating costs and value losses. Read more “UK HGV Driver Shortage Raises Contractual Issues for ACP Exporters”
Irish Trade Data on Differential Impact of Border Controls Raises Concerns for Future ACP-EU Triangular Supply Chains
Summary
Recent Irish data highlight the impact of new border controls on trade flows with the UK, with ACP ‘re-exports’ from the UK to Ireland likely to be seriously affected. This is not only a result of general cross-border trade complications generated by the Brexit process, but also due to two specific challenges arising for ‘re-exported’ products: notably the rules of origin/MFN tariff complications for re-exported fresh produce and simple processed products (e.g., from raw to refined sugar) and the additional phytosanitary import documentation requirements, namely the need for ‘phytosanitary re-export certificates’. The delays this can generate pose particular problems of value losses for short shelf-life products. While currently these problems are only faced along ACP-to-UK-to-EU supply chains, from October 2021 onwards, similar problems will be faced along ACP-to-EU-to-UK supply chains, with this potentially posing some serious challenges to current triangular supply chain operations. Read more “Irish Trade Data on Differential Impact of Border Controls Raises Concerns for Future ACP-EU Triangular Supply Chains”
Concerns Expressed Over Lack of Preparedness for October 2021 UK Controls on Goods Crossing from the EU
Summary
There are mounting industry concerns the UK authorities are not ready for implementing controls on goods crossing over from the EU scheduled to be introduced in October 2021. The de facto extension of the ‘Operation Brock’ emergency powers to regulate traffic flows along the main cross channel routes is seen as an implicit recognition of the dangers of road traffic disruptions. The serious air and sea freight disruptions and freight rate increases over the last year is complicating ACP efforts to restructure triangular supply chains, so as to deliver directly to the UK. This makes getting to grips with the sources of cost increases for ACP re-exports shipped to the UK via the EU a matter of considerable urgency. There is considerable scope for unilateral UK government action to reduce costs increases along triangular supply chains, without this impacting on broader UK/EU negotiations on trade related issues. Equally, on the EU side there is also scope for unilateral actions to reduce cost increases and delays along triangular supply chains. Read more “Concerns Expressed Over Lack of Preparedness for October 2021 UK Controls on Goods Crossing from the EU”
EU Cereals Production Rises but Global Situation Remains Tight with Rising Cereals Prices
Summary
Globally cereals prices have reached multi-year highs, with this threatening to compound national and household food security challenges which have been heightened as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. While EU soft wheat and maize production is projected to show strong growth in 2021/220 (+7.3% and +8.7% respectively), far exceeding EU consumption growth, the scope for direct EU interventions in support of food deficit ACP countries is limited by the absence of any EU held intervention stocks. EU ending stocks which are at high levels are all held in private hands. Current global cereal sector trends suggest a need for a stronger and more sustained policy focus on developing local and regional supply chains, wherever this is possible. This applied both to direct human consumption and the use of cereals as part of local livestock sector development programmes (e.g., for poultry meat). Such a policy development, however, will require the retention of policy space for the implementation of a supportive trade policy framework.
- Macro-Economic and Global Trends
According to the EC’s most recent short term agricultural outlook report for the summer of 2021, economic recovery is not only underway, but is ‘stronger than previously forecast.’ This being noted ‘private consumption and foreign demand for EU goods and services decreased in Q1 2021’, although a rebound effect on the demand side is expected from Q3 2021. According to the EC in the EU ‘the impact of the crisis on unemployment is expected to remain contained’ (1).
Despite this more favourable outlook for the EU, ‘uncertainties and economic risks will remain for as long as the health crisis lasts’ (1). It should be noted the duration of the both the direct and indirect impacts of the ongoing health crisis is likely to be far longer in ACP countries than in the EU due to both the uneven rolling out of vaccination campaigns at the global level and the limited resources in ACP countries to support national and household level coping strategies in response to the profound economic disruptions generated by the Covid-19 health crisis.
In terms of the cereals sector, the EC’s analysis highlights how globally ‘prices for the main arable crops have been subject to notable variations in spring, driven by a high demand from China and the US and weather-related uncertainties around global production levels’ (2). According to the EC analysis, at the global level, ‘despite a close-to-record production, the continuous increase of maize global consumption weighed on global stocks which dropped to an 8-year low.’ This is likely to see global ‘grain prices reach multi-year highs’ (1).
This needs to be seen in the context of the other global factors driving up food prices. According to IMF analysis, this needs to be seen against the background of a pre-pandemic trend towards high food prices, which was compounded by ‘early lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions’ which ‘induced a spike in consumer prices’, in part linked to stockpiling of food reserves. This situation has then been compounded by ‘soaring shipping and transport costs’, which ‘have increased around 2-3 times’ since June 2020 (3). Weather related uncertainties arising from dry weather (and subsequently serious floods in some areas) have come on top of these pre-existing trends. The net effect however is to drive up cereal import prices for food deficit developing countries such as many of those in the ACP.
In certain cereals categories where ACP countries have a strong production presence, such as sorghum, rising demand for inputs for animal feed has seen a massive year on year increase in demand globally (+11.4%). To date however, ACP countries have only a marginal presence in the export trade in sorghum to the EU.
- EU Cereal Market Developments
According to the EC short term agricultural outlook report ‘EU cereals production is expected to reach 288.7 million tonnes’ in 2021/2022, this is an increase of 3.8% in usable production compared to the 2020/21 season (and an increase of 3.4% over the five-year average). This is a result of an increase in production of both soft wheat (+7.3% or + 8,679,000 tonnes), durum wheat (+8.2% or + 594,000 tonnes) and maize (8.7% or + 5,652,000 tonnes) (4). There is thus a significant increase in EU soft wheat and maize availability.
Not surprisingly, both barley and rye production, were down reflecting the reduced demand resulting from the closure of the hospitality sector.
Breakdown of EU-27 cereals gross production (1 000 t)
| 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22(f) | % Change 20/21 to 21/22 | |
| Total | 289 626 | 277 371 | 284 960 | 271 272 | 297 015 | 280 531 | 291 209 | +3.8% |
| Soft wheat | 136,072 | 120,641 | 128,306 | 115,751 | 132,145 | 118,101 | 126,780 | +7.3% |
| Durum wheat | 8,389 | 9,675 | 8,810 | 8,767 | 7,472 | 7,223 | 7,817 | +8.2% |
| Rye | 7,739 | 7,349 | 7,309 | 6,174 | 8,156 | 9,067 | 8,413 | -7.2% |
| Barley | 54,536 | 53,324 | 51,642 | 49,931 | 55,496 | 55,155 | 53,959 | -2.7% |
| Oats | 6,783 | 7 321 | 7 322 | 6 887 | 6 941 | 8 368 | 7 827 | -6.5% |
| Maize | 59,261 | 62,963 | 65,049 | 69,309 | 70,410 | 65,258 | 70,910 | +8.7% |
| Triticale | 12,674 | 11,785 | 11,646 | 9,770 | 11,200 | 11,481 | 11,068 | -3.6% |
| Sorghum | 719 | 688 | 719 | 833 | 1,016 | 1,191 | 1,106 | -7.1% |
| Others | 3,453 | 3,625 | 4,158 | 3,851 | 3,880 | 4,686 | 3,311 | -29.3% |
Source: EC, ‘Annexes for EU27‘Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2021’, Summer 2021,
On the consumption side, EU cereals consumption in 2021/2022 ‘is expected to rebound year on year’ (+1.1%). This increase will be equally shared between increased demand for direct consumption and increased feed demand. This rise in feed demand is occurring despite the projected decline in EU poultry production. This will give rise to an overall increase in EU domestic consumption of only 2.6 million tonnes for the 2021/22 marketing year. This will take EU cereals consumption back to only 0.04% above 2017/18 levels, after two years of declines. This growth in EU consumption demand of 2.6 million tonnes compares to an increase in EU usable production of 10.7 million tonnes, a projected increase in EU exports of 2.9 million tonnes and a projected decline in EU cereals imports of 2.7% or some 600,000 tonnes.
The projected decline in EU cereals imports was to be expected given the increase in projected EU cereals production in 2021/22 (+3.8%), which followed on from the 5.6% decline in EU cereals production in 2020/21 season.
Significantly the EU is no longer holding intervention stocks, which it needs to dispose of. Indeed, the EU has not held any cereals stocks in intervention since 2011, with no serious volumes in intervention stocks since 2009 (when ending stocks in intervention reached 6 million tonnes) (6). All ending stocks of cereals in the EU are currently privately held (4).
EU-27 overall cereal balance (million tonnes)
| 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22(f) | % Change 20/21 to 21/22 | |
| EU Beginning stocks | 38.4 | 36.0 | 31.1 | 39.8 | 39.7 | 42.8 | 40.8 | -4.7% |
| EU Gross Production | 289.6 | 277.4 | 285.0 | 271.3 | 297.0 | 280.5 | 291.2 | +3.8% |
| EU Usable Production | 287.1 | 274.9 | 282.4 | 268.9 | 294.4 | 278.0 | 288.7 | +3.8% |
| EU Consumption | 259.3 | 258.8 | 261.0 | 261.1 | 260.3 | 258.6 | 261.2 | +1.0% |
| EU Exports | 51.4 | 39.4 | 35.7 | 35.9 | 55.1 | 41.6 | 44.5 | +7.0% |
| EU Imports | 23.4 | 20.5 | 25.0 | 30.2 | 25.8 | 21.9 | 21.3 | -2.7% |
| EU Ending Stocks° | 36.0 | 31.1 | 39.8 | 39.7 | 42.8 | 40.8 | 43.3 | +6.1% |
° all of which are privately held with EU intervention stocks at zero
Source: EC, ‘Annexes for EU27‘Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2021’, Summer 2021,
| Comment and Analysis Rising cereals prices and increased logistical costs alongside Covid-19 induced income reductions and the ongoing spread of the pandemic across ACP countries, could lead to a perfect storm of heightened food insecurity at national and household levels, which could persist for many years.Against this background, in the short term, with EU production growth substantially higher than consumption growth, there would appear to be an increase in the availability of EU cereals for use in Covid-19 related food aid relief programmes. However, with cereals stocks available in the EU being in private hands, rather than public intervention storage, there would appear to be limited scope for direct EU administrative interventions to provide food aid to food insecure countries. This suggests a need for ACP governments to focus, wherever possible, on longer-term solutions involving a sustained policy focus on the development of local and regional cereal and wider agri-food sector supply chains, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. For example, while growing international demand for sorghum as an animal feed could potentially hold out market opportunities for ACP producers, these opportunities should not be allowed to divert attention away from the need to develop local animal feed supply chains, as part of national and regional poultry sector development strategies. Sorghum has an equivalent nutritional value to corn as an animal feed, and providing millers are available to produce the appropriate feed mixes can be used as a more environmentally friendly animal feed input in the poultry sector (5). These opportunities need to be fully exploited if longer term food security is to be enhanced and vulnerability to global supply chain disruption reduced. However, this is also likely to require the granting of greater policy space to ACP governments in deploying trade policy tools, aimed at fostering long term local supply chains. This is likely to require the European Commission to continue to be flexible in how it interprets and applies commitments ACP governments have entered into under economic partnership agreements. This needs to be seen in the context of the creation of the post of Chief Trade Enforcement Officer, whose primary function is to enforce compliance by third countries with the commitments they have entered into with the EU under trade agreements they have signed on to (see companion epamonitoring.net article ‘The Implications of the EUs More Assertive Trade Policy: The EU Trade Policy Review Part 2’, 15 April 2021 and ‘Appointment of Chief Trade Enforcement Officer Could Signal a Push More Rigorous Enforcement of EPA Commitments Made by ACP Governments’, 11 December 2020). |
Sources
(1) EC, ‘Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2021’, Summer 2021
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/short-term-outlook-summer-2021_en.pdf
(2) thedairysite.com, ‘Positive projections for EU agriculture in latest short-term outlook’, 16 July 2021
https://www.thedairysite.com/news/57194/positive-projections-for-eu-agriculture-in-latest-shortterm-outlook/
(3) IMF, ‘Four facts about Soaring Consumer Food Prices’, 24 June 2021
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/06/24/four-facts-about-soaring-consumer-food-prices/
(4) EC, ‘Annexes for EU27‘Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2021’, Summer 2021,
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/short-term-outlook-statistical-annex_en.pdf
(5) sorghumcheckoff.com, ‘Sorghum in Poultry Production Feeding Guide’
https://www.sorghumcheckoff.com/assets/media/feedingguides/Poultryguideforweb.pdf
(6) EC, ‘Prospects for Agricultural Markets in the EU 2020-2030’, December 2020 – statistics
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/medium-term-outlook-tables_en.pdf
(7) EC, ‘Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2021- Highlights’, Summer 2021
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/short-term-outlook-summer-2021-highlights_en.pdf
Disaggregating EU Short Term EU27 Sugar Sector Trends
Summary
In the short term the EC is projecting an increase in EU sugar production and imports following the Covid-19 import on production and imports. When industrial usage and increased EU exports of sugar containing products are factored out the EU has a surplus of production relative to human consumption of sugar of 15.7%. More recent reports, however, suggest actual imports in 2020/21 are down, with declines in ACP exports being particularly pronounced. This is attributed to the ‘smaller EU sugar price premium.’ With this price development projected to become the norm up to 2030, the commercial prospects for ACP sugar exports to the EU27 look far form favourable. This is likely to be compounded by public health policy measures to reduce the consumption of ‘hidden sugars’ in food and drink products. ACP sugar exports will increasingly need to target sugar deficit EU27 markets, where the price premium is much higher than the EU average. Read more “Disaggregating EU Short Term EU27 Sugar Sector Trends”
UK Government Seeking Fundamental Renegotiation of the Northern Ireland Protocol
Summary
Following a lack of progress in EU/UK discussion on the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the UK government has tabled a position paper proposing what amounts to a fundamental re-writing of the mutually agreed Protocol. This would bring into question the continued participation of Northern Ireland in the EU customs union and single market as agreed in the Protocol. The EU continues to insist solution must be found within the framework of the agreed Protocol. Prime Minister Johnson’s willingness to suspend the Protocol, so the UK can act unilaterally subject to joint decision making under the Protocol, if acted upon, could result in a serious deterioration in EU/UK trade relations as early as October 2021. This could then be the final nail in the coffin of ACP triangular supply chains. Even if such action is temporarily averted in October, the UK proposals leave unaddressed issues related to the future regulatory regime applicable to ACP products onward traded from GB to Northern Ireland. This in turn will make it more difficult to set in place solutions to the issues disrupting the functioning of wider ACP triangular supply chains (both ACP-to-UK-to EU and ACP-to-EU-to-UK) Read more “UK Government Seeking Fundamental Renegotiation of the Northern Ireland Protocol”
Kenya Looking to Market Diversifications in Face of Growing Complications on EU Markets and Covid-19 Related Increases in Air Freight Costs
Summary
The Kenyan authorities are once again looking to promote a diversification of exports towards non-EU markets, in the face of stricter EU SPS import controls and ongoing impact of Covid-19 related freight disruptions, which have increased the costs of serving EU market. These increased costs are likely to remain for some time, leaving little scope for investments in developing high value alternative non-EU markets for horticultural exports. If such investments are not made any shift to non-traditional markets is likely to reverse once Covid-19 disruptions are overcome. With UK and EU phytosanitary requirements beginning to diverge, new opportunities could open up in a traditional non-EU market, the UK. The ability of Kenyan exporters to exploit these opportunities will be critically determined by the evolution of freight rates to the UK. Read more “Kenya Looking to Market Diversifications in Face of Growing Complications on EU Markets and Covid-19 Related Increases in Air Freight Costs”