State of Play in EU EPA Implementation Update January 2018

On 22 February 2018 ACT Alliance convened Seminar on the Implications of Brexit in the agro-food sector for ACP countries and for the forthcoming ACP-EU Post-Cotonou negotiations. A series of twelve 2 page summary notes were produced for the seminar covering both substantive issues arising within the Brexit process and the current state of play in the Brexit process. Note 4 provides a summary overview of the state of play in regard to the negotiation and implementation of ACP-EU economic partnership agreements based on the EC’s posted summaries and additional information. Read more “State of Play in EU EPA Implementation Update January 2018”

ACP Members Vulnerability to the Loss of Preferential Access to the UK Market

On 22 February 2018 ACT Alliance convened Seminar on the Implications of Brexit in the agro-food sector for ACP countries and for the forthcoming ACP-EU Post-Cotonou negotiations. A series of twelve 2 page summary notes were produced for the seminar covering both substantive issues arising within the Brexit process and the current state of play in the Brexit process. Note 2 provided an exploration of the vulnerability of ACP Members to a loss of preferential access to the UK market. Read more “ACP Members Vulnerability to the Loss of Preferential Access to the UK Market”

Planned Northern Sugar Project in Yorkshire to ‘Die a Death’

Summary

The virtual cancellation of the Northern Sugar Project in Yorkshire, alongside processing difficulties at British Sugar, means the initially projected large scale expansion of UK beet based sugar production post-Brexit is now unlikely to occur. This could provide relief to the financial difficulties of Tate & Lyle Sugar, but only if it is accompanied by a firm commitment by the UK government to the abolition of the CXL duty once the UK is freed from EU rules and regulations. ASR is likely to intensify pressure for a firm UK government commitment in this regard. However this will carry different implications for different ACP sugar suppliers, depending on how the situation develops. However it should be noted Caribbean and Pacific suppliers will remain the most vulnerable to future policy developments. Read more “Planned Northern Sugar Project in Yorkshire to ‘Die a Death’”

Global Sugar Market Trends Could Increase Pressure on ACP Exporters to the EU Market

Summary
The EC has argued sugar imports under the CXL scheme will be discouraged in the coming period, given the much lower average EU market price premium. However world market sugar prices have got off to a bad start in 2018, losing 10.4% of their value by mid-January. These lower average world market sugar prices, by increasing the EU market price premium to around 22% above the EU’s CXL duty could encourage increased volumes of CXL sugar imports into the EU. This would then intensify competition for ACP sugar suppliers, in the context of a halving of EU import demand. This could potentially accelerate the process by which high cost ACP suppliers are squeezed out of the EU sugar market. Read more “Global Sugar Market Trends Could Increase Pressure on ACP Exporters to the EU Market”

Health Based Sugar Taxes Gaining Ground Globally

Summary
Health based sugar taxes are increasingly a global phenomenon, with sugar taxes now in use or pending in Europe, the Caribbean, Latin America, North America, Asia, Australasia, the Middle East, and Africa. The prospect of sugar taxes is also stimulating food and drink industry product reformulation initiatives, with varying levels of industry commitment. Some ACP sugar exporters are responding to shifting patterns of global demand growth and moving away from their traditional EU focus. All ACP sugar exporters will need a better understanding of the end use to which their sugar exports are put in order to assess their vulnerability to  trends in reduced use of ‘hidden sugars’ in the food and drinks industry. Read more “Health Based Sugar Taxes Gaining Ground Globally”

Latest EC Projections Show Growing Export Orientation of EU Poultry Sector

Summary

The EU poultry sector trade is composed of low value exports and high value imports, with the EU being a net exporter in volume terms but a net importer in value terms. In recent years the export of frozen poultry parts has risen dramatically, with the importance of sub-Saharan African markets to EU exporters growing significantly. In the coming years continued growth in EU production, in the context of a slowing down of consumption growth, will see the importance of export markets to the EU poultry sector grow significantly. This will see greater importance being attached to maximising revenue flows from the export of residual poultry parts. In the context of EPA implementation this could see increased pressure on African governments to remove all forms of trade barriers to EU poultry meat exports. This could then carry serious consequences not only for domestic ACP poultry producers but grain producers who supply feed to the poultry industry. Read more “Latest EC Projections Show Growing Export Orientation of EU Poultry Sector”

Timelines and Pitfalls in the Brexit Process

Summary
The timeline for the negotiation of both the EU27/UK transitional trade arrangement and the long term framework for future EU27/UK relations are now clearer. What remains unclear is the legal basis for the transitional arrangement under EU and UK law as well as under WTO rules. This could lead to delays and a hiatus in trade relations.

Similar uncertainties arise in relation to transitional UK ‘roll-over’ trade arrangements with groupings of ACP countries engaged in EPA processes with the EU. This is not solely a UK issue but will require the agreement of the EU given the UK will continue to be subject to EU rules and regulations during the transition period. In addition there is the question of the WTO compatibility or acceptability of any transitional UK trade arrangements with groupings of ACP countries. Considerable technical and political challenges will need to be addressed in the coming months if the UK governments’ commitment to ACP countries in regard to ensuring continuity of market access is to be realised in practice. Read more “Timelines and Pitfalls in the Brexit Process”

Dramatic Changes Ahead in the EU Sugar Market

Summary
The EU sugar sector is entering a new period in its development with the abolition of sugar production quotas: boosting production at the same time as domestic consumption is contracting; lowering average prices; and doubling exports at the same time as imports are halved. This will impact not only on domestic EU markets but also international markets, given the growing global orientation of EU sugar companies and the increased price competitiveness of EU sugar production. This will transform the market context facing ACP sugar exporters as well as the competitive position of ACP producers on regional markets. This will make the continued use of non-tariff trade policy measures a critical policy issue.  This adverse market situation will be compounded by the market effects of Brexit, a policy development not yet factored into EC projections given the uncertainty surrounding the final EU27/UK post Brexit trade arrangements. Read more “Dramatic Changes Ahead in the EU Sugar Market”

Strong growth in banana consumption in the EU based on ‘alarmingly low prices’

Summary

Strong growth in banana consumption, particularly in Eastern Europe, is supporting a strong increase in banana imports. Unfortunately this is based on alarmingly low prices, which are stripping value from the banana supply chain.  ACP banana exporters bear the brunt of this loss of value. Meanwhile EU banana producers are complaining trade agreement banana safeguard provisions are not being activated, despite imports from some $ banana suppliers increasing beyond safeguard trigger levels. EU banana producers are also concerned over the impact of Brexit on the functioning of EU27 banana markets. This dimension and possible future post-Brexit UK banana trade policies are potentially of concern to ACP banana exporters. Read more “Strong growth in banana consumption in the EU based on ‘alarmingly low prices’”

Brexit concerns despite strong growth in EU banana consumption

Summary
Strong growth in banana consumption, particularly in Eastern Europe, is supporting a strong  increase in banana imports. Unfortunately this is based on alarmingly low prices, which are stripping value from the banana supply chain.  ACP exporter bear the brunt of this loss of value. Meanwhile EU banana producers are complaining trade agreement banana safeguard provisions are not be activated, despite import increases beyond safeguard trigger levels. EU banana producers are also concerned over the impact of Brexit on the functioning of EU27 banana markets. This dimension, and possible future post-Brexit UK banana trade policies are potentially of concerns to ACP banana exporters. Read more “Brexit concerns despite strong growth in EU banana consumption”