Summary
While 6 ACP countries export rice to the EU, this trade is wholly dominated by Guyana and Suriname. The unit value of Guyanese and Surinamese rice exports to the EU has fallen 23% and 30% respectively between 2012 and 2017. This needs to be seen in the context of the granting of fully duty free-quota free access to LDC rice exporters from 2009 and the reduction of the EU intervention price for rice and shift over to direct aid payments to EU rice producers in 2013. Despite the price decline Guyana exported 31% more rice to the EU market in 2017 than 2007. Up to 2030 EU rice imports are projected to increase 16.7%, although this does not factor in the withdrawal of the UK from the EU. The UK takes 22.7% of total EU rice imports and 12.4% of rice imports from ACP countries. The UK’s withdrawal would impact on the EU’s TRQ based managed trade regime for rice, since such imports would then be concentrated on EU27 markets. What is more any moves by the UK to abolish current MFN tariffs on rice given the absence of domestic UK production would greatly intensify competition from Indian and Thai rice exporters, potentially pushing Guyanese and Surinamese rice exporters entirely out of the UK market. Read more “Trends in the EU Rice Market and the Potential Impact of Brexit on ACP Rice Exports”
Category: Caribbean
The UK’s Proposed New MFN Tariff Regime: Protects ACP Interests in the Short Term But…..
The UK’s Proposed New MFN Tariff Regime: Protects ACP Interests in the Short Term
Summary
While the UK’s proposed no-deal Brexit MFN tariff schedule would ease immediate ACP concerns over the loss of value of rolled over tariff preferences arising from the removal of MFN import duties, the short duration of the proposed measures provides no longer term assurances of the value of any tariff preferences which might be rolled over under the UK’s proposed ‘Continuity Agreements’. The new announcement leaves unaddressed just how the UK plans to roll over existing ACP tariff preferences under a no-deal outcome to the current Brexit negotiations. Indeed, it could see ACP banana, horticulture, rice, beef, fisheries and cocoa product exporters all facing new tariffs on exports to the UK if Continuity Agreements are not concluded by the date of the UK’s ‘no-deal’ departure from the EU. What is more serious questions have been raised as to the viability and sustainability of specific UK proposals to avert a hard border on the island of Ireland. Read more “The UK’s Proposed New MFN Tariff Regime: Protects ACP Interests in the Short Term But…..”
Why Eliminating UK MFN Tariffs on Bananas Would be Bad News for ACP Banana Exporters
Summary
While the UK Secretary of State for International Trade has committed to taking account of the impact the removal of MFN tariffs would have on the preferential treatment accorded developing countries, there remain persistent rumours that given the absence of any domestic UK production, bananas would be one of the first products where existing EU MFN tariffs would be eliminated. However such a move would bring only marginal benefits to UK consumers, with the banana pricing policies of UK supermarkets having a far greater impact on the final purchase price of bananas than the MFN tariffs applied. This would however see a significant erosion of the competitive position of mainly Commonwealth African and Caribbean banana exporting countries which are focussed on the UK market in their banana export trade with the EU. This could cause considerable harm to these banana exporting economies, in a context where the banana sector not only providing significant livelihood opportunities in rural areas in the main banana exporting countries but where it is also providing the commercial basis for the development of variety of new non-traditional fruit exports to the UK market. Read more “Why Eliminating UK MFN Tariffs on Bananas Would be Bad News for ACP Banana Exporters”
Is the Final Count Down to Brexit Underway or Will the ACP have Three More Months to Take Action to Mitigate the Trade Disruption Effects of No Deal Brexit?
Summary
The UK government has now laid down a clear Parliamentary route to defining a final UK position on the ‘no-deal’ Brexit option. This could lead to an extension of the article 50 process for either 3 month or 21 months. This would provide time for ACP governments to set in place policy initiatives to mitigate the adverse effects of a no-deal Brexit on ACP trade with both the UK and the EU27. This would require the launching of a specific political initiative towards the UK government to ensure three major issue clusters are addressed: the shortcomings of the UK’s existing ‘Continuity Agreement’ approach; the trilateral administrative arrangements required to ensure continuity of trade flows in the immediate post-Brexit period and the value of existing DFQF access granted ACP countries is retained through accommodating ACP concerns in the UK’s future MFN tariff schedule. It would also require the launching of a political initiative towards the EU to ensure issues in future EU27 relations arising from the UK’s departure from the EU are fully addressed, so as to reduce the adverse effects of Brexit on ACP economies. Read more “Is the Final Count Down to Brexit Underway or Will the ACP have Three More Months to Take Action to Mitigate the Trade Disruption Effects of No Deal Brexit?”
First Post Production Quota Year Shows Dramatic Changes on the EU Sugar Market
Summary
The 2017/18 marketing year saw a dramatic fall in imports from EPA/EBA suppliers of some 58% compare to the 2016/17 season. This extended the trend in declining ACP sugar exports which has been underway since the 2013/14 marketing year. This situation on the EU market is unlikely to improve, with the impact of Brexit potentially making the EU27 market situation more difficult for ACP sugar exporters. However opportunities for ACP exporters on the UK market could emerge under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario, if ACP EPA signatory governments can secure a continuation of current duty free-quota free access to the UK market form 30th March 2019. This situation however will be complicated by the likely lobbying by Tate & Lyle Sugars for an expansion of its access to world market priced sugar for refining. Further complications arise from the growing volume of EU white sugar exports to African markets, which, given population and per capita sugar consumption trends, are themselves increasingly attractive to African sugar producers. ACP sugar producers and exporters will need to develop more sophisticate marketing strategies to deal with an increasingly complex set of changing market parameters. Read more “First Post Production Quota Year Shows Dramatic Changes on the EU Sugar Market”
State of Play in the EU/UK Brexit Negotiations: Update 4 February 2019
Summary
The last epamonitoring.net article dealing with the process of EU/UK withdrawal negotiations covered the EU’s approval of the UK/EU Withdrawal Agreement (26th November 2018) and the subsequent deferment of the UK parliamentary vote on approving the Withdrawal Agreement. From mid-December until mid-February the UK Parliamentary process for ratifying the mutually agreed EU/UK Withdrawal Agreement has been stalled. This article provides an update of developments since the December 2018 UK governments’ decision to defer the Parliamentary vote on the Withdrawal Agreement until 2019 and the potential implications for ACP exporters serving the UK market of the ongoing uncertainty. Read more “State of Play in the EU/UK Brexit Negotiations: Update 4 February 2019”
UK Signs Continuity Agreement with ESA Governments
Summary
The UK’s ambition to ‘rolled over’ EU reciprocal trade agreements into ‘UK only’ trade agreements has been given practical expression with the conclusion of the first 2 ‘Continuity Agreements’, with Chile and the ESA EPA Group respectively. Additional agreements are planned in the coming weeks with CARIFORUM, Fiji, PNG and the SADC EPA group. However it is unclear whether such trade agreements can be concluded with Kenya, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Cameroon. Failure to conclude a Continuity Agreement would see exporters in these countries facing standard MFN or GSP import tariffs. These Continuity Agreements appear to leave a range of important issues unresolved ranging from: the trade documentation to be utilised from day 1 of Brexit; the future value of duty free quota free access to the UK market in the post Brexit context; the disruptive impact of a non-deal Brexit on triangular supply chains and most fundamentally the rules of origin to be applied under ‘UK-Only’ trade deals once the UK is no longer part of the single EU customs territory. It is unclear whether these ‘Continuity Agreements’ are simply a mechanism to secure ACP duty free-quota free access to the UK market under a ‘no-deal’ scenario or a crafty attempt to side step comprehensively addressing the rules of origin constraint on UK exporters under ‘UK-Only’ trade deals which will arise from leaving the customs territory of the EU. In this context it would appear more appropriate for the UK government to unilaterally extend existing terms and conditions of access to the UK market which ACP EPA signatories enjoy, so as to allow time for a more thorough going negotiation of bilateral UK-only trade agreements which are WTO compatible, operationally applicable and development friendly. Read more “UK Signs Continuity Agreement with ESA Governments”
CARIFORUM EU EPA: Slow Pace of Implementation and Marginal Benefits
Summary
The EC’s analysis of the CARIFORUM-EU EPA while factually accurate is misleading. While the EU’s growing trade surplus with CARIFORUM is acknowledged the importance of the principal change brought about by the EPA – improved market access for EU exporters is glossed over. EU agro-food exports have shown particular strong growth with dairy products, meat and meat preparations, beverages and fresh vegetables leading the way. In contrasts the value of CARIFORUM agro-food exports has stagnated, although the masks a rise in agro-food exports to the EU from the Dominican republic and a decline in the value of CARICOM exports. The decline in CARICOM exports however mask a rise in non-traditional exports and a dramatic fall in the value of banana and sugar exports to the EU. Despite the institutional structures in place the single most important issue facing CARIFORUM exporters to the EU, Brexit, has not been addressed within EPA consultative structures. The impact of Brexit on the value of preferential exports under the EU EPA will be so profound as to require an immediate policy response from the EU to areas of CARIFORUM concern in regard to improving EPA implementation (e.g. removing all obstacles to full DFQF exports to the DOMs and OCTs, intensifying and acting on SPS dialogues, eliminating UTPs along CARIFORUM-EU supply chains, introducing flexibility in EPA implementation). The EU also needs to recognise and address the effects of its wider policy changes on the value of preferential access granted CARIFORUM countries under the EPA. Failure to do so will amount to a continued failure to deliver on the expectations raised by the EPA agreement in the Caribbean region. Read more “CARIFORUM EU EPA: Slow Pace of Implementation and Marginal Benefits”
UK Dependence on the EU for ‘Dark’ Meat Exports Potential Source of Concern
Summary
The UK poultry sector is dependent on exports of ‘dark meat’ to maximise its revenues. Currently 70% of these exports go to EU27 markets. This trade will become increasingly difficult under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario if the EU applies both standard MFN tariffs and its rigorous 3rd country import controls on UK poultry meat. The application of such rigorous controls is made more likely by the probable shortage of veterinarians in the UK post Brexit to carry out the inspections and certification required for imports into the EU to take place. Attaining compliance with standard EU poultry meat import requirements or finding internal markets UK markets for poultry ‘dark meat’ if likely to take some time. This could leave UK exporters seeking alternative overseas markets for their ‘dark meat’ exports from 30th March 2019, in a context where ACP markets already take 42.2% of overall UK extra-EU poultry meat exports. Both African and Caribbean governments who wish to support local poultry sector development will need to consider carefully how they are to manage this likely development. Read more “UK Dependence on the EU for ‘Dark’ Meat Exports Potential Source of Concern”
Shortages of Cold Storage Space Linked to Brexit Stockpiling Could Disrupt Some ACP Chilled and Frozen Exports
Summary
Fears of supply chains disruption arising from a ‘no-deal’ Brexit has seen food manufacturers and retailers stockpiling supplies to such an extent there is now an acute shortage of cold store space in the UK. This could generate serious problems for ACP exporters of chilled and frozen products which have not already contractually locked in access to cold storage capacity. ACP exporters of chilled or frozen products urgently need to review whether they have contractually secure access to cold storage capacity on route to serving their final customers. If not they will need to intensify their search for what limited cold store capacity remains available across the UK. Read more “Shortages of Cold Storage Space Linked to Brexit Stockpiling Could Disrupt Some ACP Chilled and Frozen Exports”