Brexit concerns despite strong growth in EU banana consumption

Summary
Strong growth in banana consumption, particularly in Eastern Europe, is supporting a strong  increase in banana imports. Unfortunately this is based on alarmingly low prices, which are stripping value from the banana supply chain.  ACP exporter bear the brunt of this loss of value. Meanwhile EU banana producers are complaining trade agreement banana safeguard provisions are not be activated, despite import increases beyond safeguard trigger levels. EU banana producers are also concerned over the impact of Brexit on the functioning of EU27 banana markets. This dimension, and possible future post-Brexit UK banana trade policies are potentially of concerns to ACP banana exporters. Read more “Brexit concerns despite strong growth in EU banana consumption”

EU Pacific EPA Trade Committee Meet, but with no discussion of the impact of BREXIT

Summary

While the meeting dealt with market access obligations, this focused on the obligations of  Pacific signatories towards the EU.  There was no discussion of the implications of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on the value of the market access enjoyed by Pacific signatories to the EU under the EPA. With the prospects for a ‘hard BREXIT’ increasing, getting to grips with the implications for the value of EPA market access for Pacific EPA signatories in the absence of the UK would appear to be some important issue for discussion at the next Pacific-EU EPA Trade Committee meeting. Read more “EU Pacific EPA Trade Committee Meet, but with no discussion of the impact of BREXIT”

Tourist Sectors Vital Role in Horticulture Exports to EU

Summary
A large well established tourism sector can provide significant opportunities for the export of high value low volume horticulture products to the EU.  This is particular where tourist flights service horticulture product distribution hubs. A ‘hard’ Brexit however could bring into question the use of these hubs in serving the UK market. A Freshfel report has outlined the disruption ‘hard’ Brexit could give rise to. Some of these adverse impacts could be ameliorated by administrative cooperation between ACP, EU27 and UK authorities. The ACP Secretariat could usefully launch initiatives in these areas. Read more “Tourist Sectors Vital Role in Horticulture Exports to EU”

State of play in the Brexit negotiations implications for the ACP: November 30th 2017

Summary
This article reviews the state of play in the 1st phase of Brexit negotiations on the eve of the deadline for the circulation of draft conclusions for the EU Council meeting scheduled for the 14/15 December 2017.  It then seeks to review the possible implications for ACP agro-food sectors of the current state of play. Read more “State of play in the Brexit negotiations implications for the ACP: November 30th 2017”

‘Hard’ Brexit Could Create Fruit and Vegetable Shortages in the UK

Summary

There are growing concerns that a ‘hard’ Brexit could lead to serious fruit and vegetable shortages on the UK market.  However if an extension of the current duty free-quota free access to the UK market could be extended from day 1 of the UK’s full departure from the EU, then a ‘hard’ Brexit could present opportunities for certain ACP fruit and vegetable exporters. In this regard East African suppliers would appear to be best placed to exploit any opportunities which might emerge. While there is considerable uncertainty over how EU27/UK trade relations will develop in the coming years, planning for a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario could usefully be initiated. Read more “‘Hard’ Brexit Could Create Fruit and Vegetable Shortages in the UK”

Food price inflation effects of Brexit seen as sensitive by the UK Government

Summary

While the UK government refuses to release an official assessment of the impact of Brexit on food prices, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) suggests ‘the average cost of food imported by retailers from the EU would increase by 22%’ under a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario. A ‘no deal’ Brexit could create opportunities for some ACP exporters to the UK market if current DFQF access can be preserved from day 1 of Brexit.  However, this will require ACP exporters to meet logistical challenges faced in expanding just-in-time deliveries to UK retailers. This is an issue which the most favourably placed ACP exporters will need to start exploring with British Retail Consortium members in the coming months (e.g. Kenya for certain horticulture products). Read more “Food price inflation effects of Brexit seen as sensitive by the UK Government”

Pre-emptive export restrictions introduced on South African citrus exports to EU

Summary

The Citrus Growers Association has once again introduced voluntary restrictions on citrus exports to the EU in order to avert any threat of formal EU import restrictions. While the South African citrus industry is looking forward to new export opportunities as a result of the Brexit process, these opportunities may well be deferred if a two year transition period is agreed. During this period the UK would need to remain subject to EU rules and regulation. The prospect of such a two year transition period however remains clouded by uncertainty, given the contrasting views of the UK government and EU negotiators on the time it will take to agree a long term EU27-UK trade framework. Read more “Pre-emptive export restrictions introduced on South African citrus exports to EU”

Dutch onion exports hit further record highs with West African markets playing a  critical role

Summary

Dutch onion exports continue to grow with ACP markets, particularly in West Africa being major destination markets. Since 2010 the importance of ACP markets to extra-EU Dutch onion exports has increased from 57.6% to 62.5%, with ACP market increasing in importance whenever difficulties are faced on other third country markets. This suggest any disruption of Dutch-UK onion exports arising from a hard-Brexit could rebound in terms of increased Dutch onion exports to ACP markets.  This in turn could adversely impact on local efforts across the ACP to expand local production of onions for national and regional markets Read more “Dutch onion exports hit further record highs with West African markets playing a  critical role”

Concerns over Division of EU28 WTO TRQ Commitments Emerge

 

Summary
Dividing up existing EU WTO TRQ market access commitments a between the EU27 and UK, could prove controversial as third country exporters seek to retain their access to the EU market, while seeking increased access to the UK market. Failure to reach agreement on the divisions of EU WTO TRQs could generate resentment amongst WTO members, with this leading to challenges to any transitional arrangements for ensuring ACP countries retain preferential access to the UK market which are not fully WTO compatible. Read more “Concerns over Division of EU28 WTO TRQ Commitments Emerge”

USDA projects lower EU sugar price post production quota abolition

Summary

While USDA maintains EU sugar prices will need to fall if EU projections for growth in sugar exports in the post-quota period are to be met, this neglects the long experience EU sugar companies have of operating within a dual price system. It is possible substantial price premiums could be maintained on the EU sugar market, with this raising the issue of what regulatory initiatives are required to ensure traditional ACP suppliers share in any EU sugar market prices premiums. This would appear to require an extension of the EC’s current regulatory initiative on UTPs to ACP-EU sugar supply chains. This could potentially include regulatory requirements mirroring those which govern relations between domestic EU sugar beet growers and EU sugar beet millers. Read more “USDA projects lower EU sugar price post production quota abolition”