Irish Trade Data on Differential Impact of Border Controls Raises Concerns for Future ACP-EU Triangular Supply Chains

Summary
Recent Irish data highlight the impact of new border controls on trade flows with the UK, with ACP ‘re-exports’ from the UK to Ireland likely to be seriously affected. This is not only a result of general cross-border trade complications generated by the Brexit process, but also due to two specific challenges arising for ‘re-exported’ products: notably the rules of origin/MFN tariff complications for re-exported fresh produce and simple processed products (e.g., from raw to refined sugar) and the additional phytosanitary import documentation requirements, namely the need for ‘phytosanitary re-export certificates’. The delays this can generate pose particular problems of value losses for short shelf-life products. While currently these problems are only faced along ACP-to-UK-to-EU supply chains, from October 2021 onwards, similar problems will be faced along ACP-to-EU-to-UK supply chains, with this potentially posing some serious challenges to current triangular supply chain operations. Read more “Irish Trade Data on Differential Impact of Border Controls Raises Concerns for Future ACP-EU Triangular Supply Chains”

Concerns Expressed Over Lack of Preparedness for October 2021 UK Controls on Goods Crossing from the EU

Summary
There are mounting industry concerns the UK authorities are not ready for implementing controls on goods crossing over from the EU scheduled to be introduced in October 2021. The de facto extension of the ‘Operation Brock’ emergency powers to regulate traffic flows along the main cross channel routes is seen as an implicit recognition of the dangers of road traffic disruptions. The serious air and sea freight disruptions and freight rate increases over the last year is complicating ACP efforts to restructure triangular supply chains, so as to deliver directly to the UK. This makes getting to grips with the sources of cost increases for ACP re-exports shipped to the UK via the EU a matter of considerable urgency. There is considerable scope for unilateral UK government action to reduce costs increases along triangular supply chains, without this impacting on broader UK/EU negotiations on trade related issues. Equally, on the EU side there is also scope for unilateral actions to reduce cost increases and delays along triangular supply chains. Read more “Concerns Expressed Over Lack of Preparedness for October 2021 UK Controls on Goods Crossing from the EU”

Disaggregating EU Short Term EU27 Sugar Sector Trends

Summary
In the short term the EC is projecting an increase in EU sugar production and imports following the Covid-19 import on production and imports. When industrial usage and increased EU exports of sugar containing products are factored out the EU has a surplus of production relative to human consumption of sugar of 15.7%. More recent reports, however, suggest actual imports in 2020/21 are down, with declines in ACP exports being particularly pronounced. This is attributed to the ‘smaller EU sugar price premium.’ With this price development projected to become the norm up to 2030, the commercial prospects for ACP sugar exports to the EU27 look far form favourable. This is likely to be compounded by public health policy measures to reduce the consumption of ‘hidden sugars’ in food and drink products. ACP sugar exports will increasingly need to target sugar deficit EU27 markets, where the price premium is much higher than the EU average. Read more “Disaggregating EU Short Term EU27 Sugar Sector Trends”

Fundamental Restructuring of Supply Chains Increasingly Needed in Absence of Progress in EU/UK Discussions on the Implementation of Necessary Border Controls

Summary
UK retailers with operations in the EU are counting the costs of the UK’s exit from the EU single market, with a fundamental restructuring of supply chains looking necessary if the affected UK companies are not to lose market share in EU27 countries. This is particularly the case since there continues to be little progress towards the obvious short-term solution, a formal agreement on the ‘temporary’ alignment on UK regulatory requirements with existing EU standards. Rather than pursuing this option the UK government has announced a major regulatory review which will include a review of the use of the EU’s ‘precautionary principle’ approach and its replacement with a ‘proportionality principle’. Such a move can only complicate efforts to find agreements which will restore the smooth flow of goods across EU/UK borders. Against the background of the need for restructuring of supply chains ACP agri-food exporters need to identify how they will adjust their export operations in order to fit into these new restructured supply chains. Early adjustments could help individual ACP exporters sustain and even gain market share, while a failure to adjust could see a reduction of overall exports to the UK as the onward trade from the UK to EU markets grinds to a halt. Read more “Fundamental Restructuring of Supply Chains Increasingly Needed in Absence of Progress in EU/UK Discussions on the Implementation of Necessary Border Controls”

UK Government Seeking Fundamental Renegotiation of the Northern Ireland Protocol

Summary
Following a lack of progress in EU/UK discussion on the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the UK government has tabled a position paper proposing what amounts to a fundamental re-writing of the mutually agreed Protocol. This would bring into question the continued participation of Northern Ireland in the EU customs union and single market as agreed in the Protocol. The EU continues to insist solution must be found within the framework of the agreed Protocol. Prime Minister Johnson’s willingness to suspend the Protocol, so the UK can act unilaterally subject to joint decision making under the Protocol, if acted upon, could result in a serious deterioration in EU/UK trade relations as early as October 2021. This could then be the final nail in the coffin of ACP triangular supply chains. Even if such action is temporarily averted in October, the UK proposals leave unaddressed issues related to the future regulatory regime applicable to ACP products onward traded from GB to Northern Ireland. This in turn will make it more difficult to set in place solutions to the issues disrupting the functioning of wider ACP triangular supply chains (both ACP-to-UK-to EU and ACP-to-EU-to-UK) Read more “UK Government Seeking Fundamental Renegotiation of the Northern Ireland Protocol”

Kenya Looking to Market Diversifications in Face of Growing Complications on EU Markets and Covid-19 Related Increases in Air Freight Costs

 

Summary
The Kenyan authorities are once again looking to promote a diversification of exports towards non-EU markets, in the face of stricter EU SPS import controls and ongoing impact of Covid-19 related freight disruptions, which have increased the costs of serving EU market. These increased costs are likely to remain for some time, leaving little scope for investments in developing high value alternative non-EU markets for horticultural exports. If such investments are not made any shift to non-traditional markets is likely to reverse once Covid-19 disruptions are overcome. With UK and EU phytosanitary requirements beginning to diverge, new opportunities could open up in a traditional non-EU market, the UK. The ability of Kenyan exporters to exploit these opportunities will be critically determined by the evolution of freight rates to the UK.  Read more “Kenya Looking to Market Diversifications in Face of Growing Complications on EU Markets and Covid-19 Related Increases in Air Freight Costs”

Lack of Clarity on the Whether Brexit Disruptions of EU/UK Trade in Plants in Impacting ACP Exports

Summary
The early introduction of ‘complex and lengthy pre-notifications, certificates and inspections’ for living plants and cutting crossing from the EU to the UK is impacting on the EU/UK trade in such products. Currently it is unclear what knock-on effects this is having on ACP exports to the EU, given the large proportion of imports which originate in AC countries and the central role the Netherlands plays in the import and re-export trade. Given the impasse in EU/UK trade relations around the Northern Ireland Protocol, the early conclusion of a substantive EU/UK ^phytosanitary agreement is unlikely. The scope for shifting over to ACP direct exports to the UK meanwhile is complicated by the commercial consequences of the UK’s Covid-19 linked ‘red-list’ travel restrictions which are raising air freight costs from East Africa to the UK. Read more “Lack of Clarity on the Whether Brexit Disruptions of EU/UK Trade in Plants in Impacting ACP Exports”

Brexit set to extend marginalisation of traditional ACP suppliers on the UK sugar market

Summary
The proposed sugar quota under the UK-Australia FTA is initially equivalent to 17% of total UK import from outside the EU in 2019, rising to 47% after 8 years. Its impact on total ACP sugar exports to the UK will be determined by the future volume of EU27 sugar exports to the UK; the future evolution of UK sugar demand; and the future of the temporary UK ATQ of 260,000 tonnes which was introduced for one year from 1 January 2021. If the ATQ is retained, EU sales remain at ½ 2020 volumes and UK sugar consumption shrinks in line with projections, the situation of most ACP exporters on the UK market will be precarious. However, the vulnerability of individual ACP exporters to the evolving UK sugar sector trade policy varies greatly, with in depth, country specific analysis being required to determine which ACP sugar exporters are most vulnerable to the UK’s evolving sugar sector trade policy. Read more “Brexit set to extend marginalisation of traditional ACP suppliers on the UK sugar market”

HGV Driver Crisis Raises Contractual Issues for ACP Fresh Produce Exporters

Summary
While a post-Brexit-road haulage crisis was foreseen, this initially focussed on cross border road haulage operations. However, a combination of Covid-19 linked economic downturn and movement restrictions, a ‘hostile’ post-Brexit UK immigration policy and UK tax reforms linked to the employment of independent HGV drivers, has served to create an acute shortage of drivers for both HGV vehicles and lighter vans. This is posing serious challenges to the continued smooth functioning of food supply chains. This raises important issues related to the distribution of the losses and additional costs arising from the current road haulage crisis. These issues need to be addressed within ACP supply contracts, with the inclusion of provisions which insulate ACP suppliers from the worst of the emerging losses and additional costs.  On the basis of past commercial experience of burden sharing this may require policy interventions if ACP suppliers are not to bear the brunt of the new costs and losses. However, the policy framework for such interventions is weak. Read more “HGV Driver Crisis Raises Contractual Issues for ACP Fresh Produce Exporters”

Effects of Rules of Origin Complications for ACP Exports Shipped to UK Via EU Being Increasingly Felt

Summary
For products shipped across an EU/UK border since January 2021, the end of the 6-month grace period for the submission of documentation required to validate self-certified originating status claims (on which duty-free access is based) has started. Failure to validate initial claims will potentially see UK MFN tariffs imposed. This poses problems for ACP products shipped to the UK via the EU, where invalid originating status claims were initially made. For these products extending the grace period for document submission will not help.  What is required is the introduction of simplified procedures for the verification of initial ‘originating status’ of ACP products re-exported (e.g., through HMRC recognising country specific phytosanitary certificates as valid documentary proof of origin for duty free access claims). Such reforms need to be urgently introduced if the commercial viability of a wide range of ACP triangular supply chains are not to be fundamentally undermined. Read more “Effects of Rules of Origin Complications for ACP Exports Shipped to UK Via EU Being Increasingly Felt”